Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy

Reklaitė, Agnė

doi:10.1080/1406099x.2011.10840492

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…This section briefly presents how coincident index was constructed; the procedure replicated the previous paper by Reklaite (2011) only the more recent data are used.…”

Section: The Coincident Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Equations (1)-(3) form a state-space model which is evaluated using maximum likelihood method and Kalman filter is used to extract the evaluated factor DF t . Parameters a and b were evaluated by minimizing sum of squares: T i=t (C t − GDP t ) 2 (following Reklaite, 2011). DF t is going to be de-normalized DC t = a + bDF t as defined by Equation (4) and CEI C t is constructed:…”

Section: The Coincident Index Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The selected indicator set (the full list is given in Appendix 1) includes Lithuania's profitable share of enterprises, which was the leading indicator from the domestic leading model (Reklaite, 2011) which reflects dynamics in customer purchasing power, labour productivity and efficiency in management. Foreign direct investment to Lithuania is among selected indicators mostly due to direct causal relationship between investment and future growth of economy; livestock and poultry represent the potential output in the agricultural sector, therefore its presence among selected indicators reveals the importance of agriculture to Lithuanian economy.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Measuring foreign impact: leading index construction using hierarchical dynamic factor model

Reklaitė

2016

Baltic Journal of Economics

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In this paper a new method of constructing the leading economic index is presented. Its main advantage is the ability to distinguish domestic and foreign factors influencing the growth of economy and it is performed via dynamic hierarchical factor modelling. An application is carried out with Lithuanian data and the results indicate that foreign component corresponds to an economically and statistically significant amount of variance. Under this new methodology, a hypothesis that the effect of international trends on the growth of economy is increasing over time is validated. Results indicate that globalization effect can be quantified and monitored using the proposed decomposition. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…This section briefly presents how coincident index was constructed; the procedure replicated the previous paper by Reklaite (2011) only the more recent data are used.…”

Section: The Coincident Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Coincident Index Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Measuring foreign impact: leading index construction using hierarchical dynamic factor model

Reklaitė

2016

Baltic Journal of Economics

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Globalisation effect measure via hierarchical dynamic factor modelling

Reklaitė

2015

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In this paper the issue of globalisation and deteriorating precision of domestically oriented frameworks is addressed. A hypothesis that the effect of international trends on the growth of economy is increasing over time is formed. In order to validate this, a method of composing foreign series with local indicators in a hierarchical dynamic factor model is presented. The novelty of this approach is that globalisation effect is measured focusing on prediction rather than similarity. This way the measure presents the country's sensitivity to global shocks and reveals how much focal country's economy is intertwined with global economy. The application was performed on the basis of Lithuanian data and the hypothesis was validated. The results indicate that globalisation effect has an increasing effect over time.

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Assesment of the Industry Competitiveness of the Baltic States in the Eu During the Period of Economic Recession

Remeikienė

Startienė

Dumčiuvienė

2015

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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The purpose of the article is to carry out the assessment of the industrial competitiveness of the Baltic States in the EU during the period of economic recession. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and Symmetric index (SI) index values revealed that after the period of economic recession, the growth of the industrial competitiveness of the Baltic States, considering it from export positions, is slower in comparison with GDP changes. Latvia has taken strong competitive positions in the industry of raw materials; Estonia also has medium comparative advantage in the industry of raw materials, while Lithuania has the comparative advantage in the industries of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials. Export competitiveness index (XCI) results showed that all three Baltic States had growing competitive advantage in the industries of food, drinks and tobacco during both the period of economic recession and the period of economic revival. In the period of economic revival Estonia showed the growth potential in the industries of chemicals and related products, while Lithuania – in the industry of raw materials and related products.The identification of competitive industries during the periods of economic recession and revival can provide the governments of the Baltic States with the target data not only for supporting export companies, but also for taking the best decisions to improve the business environment in the industries that have the competitive advantage.

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Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy

Cited by 3 publications

References 3 publications

Measuring foreign impact: leading index construction using hierarchical dynamic factor model

Measuring foreign impact: leading index construction using hierarchical dynamic factor model

Globalisation effect measure via hierarchical dynamic factor modelling

Assesment of the Industry Competitiveness of the Baltic States in the Eu During the Period of Economic Recession

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