Coincidence of variation in potato yield and climate in northern China

Jun, Zhao; Zhang, Yanhong; Qian, Yonglan; Pan, Zhihua; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Xu, Lei

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.195

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Although the solar radiation decreased with fluctuation over the past 34 years in this region, radiation could still ensure the growth of spring wheat in general. This was because northern China had more dry and sunny days and a greater total amount of solar radiation compared with southern China [ 6 ]. In addition, decreased radiation meant lower daytime temperatures and could mitigate the effects of high temperature stress on crop production to some extent.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The crop parameters and long-term field observation datasets on the growth, development and yield of spring wheat were collected from the 10 agro-meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia. The field observation data of crop in China have been widely recorded since the late 1970s [ 6 ]. Moreover, owing to the poor data quality from earlier years, we only collected spring wheat observation data from 1981 to 2014 in Inner Mongolia.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these impacts still have large uncertainties and remain inconclusive in terms of their mechanisms, magnitude and spatial pattern [ 4 ]. Therefore, it is urgent to acquire a more in-depth understanding of how climate change affects crop production, ensuring global food security and making adaptation decisions for both policymakers and scientists[ 5 , 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

Jun¹,

Pu²,

Liu³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

Jun¹,

Pu²,

Liu³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

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“…Nguyen et al [ 16 ] developed a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis procedure to evaluatethe suitability of temperature and precipitation for the winter wheat and summer maize cropping systems in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China. In China, the impacts of climate change on potato over the past few decades have been a major cause of concern [ 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 ]. Wang [ 18 ] found global climate warming had caused adverse effects on potato yield in semi-arid regions of northwest China from 1961 to 2010 based on WOFOST crop model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change

Jun

Zhan

Jiang³

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

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“…These changes are expected to progress and may even accelerate in the future, exerting a potentially serious but very uncertain effect on crop production. Potato, one of the most important non-grain commodity crops worldwide [7], is sensitive to rainfall and temperature variability during the growing season [8]. The early potato type is the most vulnerable to water shortage, due to its short growing period [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of the WOFOST Model to Simulate Water-Limited Yield of Early Potato Cultivars

et al. 2020

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In this work, an attempt was made to use the WOFOST (WOrld FOod Studies) model to simulate the potential and water-limited yield of early potato cultivars Lord and Denar. Data from cultivar experiments carried out at the Polish Research Centre for Cultivar Testing in 2004–2013 were used in the study. The Lord cultivar yielded 22.4–67.8 t fresh tuber weight per ha and 3.8–11.5 t ha−1 dry tuber weight during the study period. The highest tuber yields (over 10 t ha−1 dry weight) were obtained in 2009, 2011 and 2012, and the lowest in 2005 (3.8 t ha−1) and 2006 (2.65 t ha−1). The water-limited tuber yield simulated by WOFOST ranged from 3.6 to 10.9 t ha−1 dry weight and was about 0.45 t ha−1 higher on average than the actual yield. The planting period each year was between days 104 and 120 of the year, and harvesting took place between days 216 and 232. Water availability was a factor limiting the yield. The yield limited by water deficiency was 38.7% lower (irrespective of the cultivar) than the potential yield. The WOFOST model was sensitive to water deficiency, and the simulated (water-limited) yields were close to the actual yield or showed a clear downward trend indicating evident rainfall shortages in 2005 and 2006.

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Coincidence of variation in potato yield and climate in northern China

Cited by 32 publications

References 48 publications

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change

The Use of the WOFOST Model to Simulate Water-Limited Yield of Early Potato Cultivars

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