Cognitive Modeling of Complex Systems: State and Prospects

Gorelova, Galina

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-98832-6_19

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The results of some studies have been published in the works Gorelova & Pankratova, 2015;Kalinichenko, 2019). In modern publications, the author explores issues of cognitive deliberation of socioeconomic, including regional systems (Gorelova, 2022 In our opinion, the country's industrial planning system should be formed at the country level and then "descend" to the regional level and the enterprise level. This planning system should be based on accurate quantitative indicators.…”

Section: A Analysis Of the Results Of Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Makarenya,

Mannaa,

Kalinichenko

et al. 2024

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems

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Under the current geopolitical conditions and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an objective need to formulate a strategic development plan for the economy as a whole and for specific sectors of the economy. Various methods and tools can be used for strategic planning. One of the methods of strategic planning is the program-targeted method of planning, which has proved to be an effective method of foresight. It is possible to speak about failures of planning activities, but these failures were related not only to shortcomings and application of science-based planning methods but also to the efficiency of the managerial apparatus, which took decisions. It should be noted that it was in the period when science-based planning methods were applied that our country managed to form and develop industrial production in various sectors, and the issue of import substitution did not arise then, as all the stages of the product life cycle were represented at all the enterprises. Currently, the country is facing the problem of strategic development in the context of the imposed economic sanctions. The volume of sanctions is increasing day by day and one can only speculate on the future restrictions imposed. Therefore, there is a need to forecast activities at the level of the whole country, individual industries, and enterprises. One such method is cognitive modeling based on fuzzy logic. This approach involves the use of cognitive principles and methods to understand the behavior of individuals in the system, as well as the interactions and feedback loops between the various components. The purpose of this paper is to retrospectively analyze the application of the cognitive method to modeling. Information systems that have been developed in our country to implement the tasks of cognitive modeling are reviewed, and an assessment of existing software products is made. Also, theoretical materials on cognitive approach in modeling are presented in order to understand the application of this toolkit for modeling socioeconomic systems using elements of fuzzy logic.

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Section: A Analysis Of the Results Of Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Makarenya,

Mannaa,

Kalinichenko

et al. 2024

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems

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“…Inserting «an observer» into a metamodel allows for building research and decisionmaking methodology; considering the process development of object knowledge in the researcher's consciousness is also important [26].…”

Section: Metamodel Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The R G matrix represents the cognitive model in the form of a parametrical vector functional graph FG, which allows for various operations to be performed on a matrix to obtain answers regarding the stability of the system, its connectivity, development of pulse processes, etc. A methodology for cognitive modeling of complex systems has been developed and approved [26].…”

Section: Cognitive Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation Cognitive Modeling Approach to the Regional Sustainable Complex System Development for Improving Quality of Life

Firsova,

Gorelova,

Makarova

et al. 2023

Mathematics

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This article presents study results of the region’s sustainable development possibility, thus improving the population’s life quality using cognitive simulation methods of complex systems. The main theoretical provisions of cognitive modeling developed and tested earlier in various socioeconomic system modeling are briefly outlined. The cognitive modeling application’s mathematical apparatus and CMCS software No. 2018661506 system were developed using quantitative data from one of Russia’s southern regions (Rostov oblast). The task was to study the region, model, understand, explain, and develop possible situation development scenarios, and foresee this complex system’s possible future outcome. The main statistical socioeconomic indicators of the state region were studied and processed. Data analysis necessary for developing and researching a cognitive model is given. The regional economic mechanism cognitive model is a functional graph consisting of quantitative and qualitative concepts. Between them, relationships are given in the form of functions, which is the novelty of research. The results of several scenarios of impulse modeling are presented, making it possible to predict future desirable and undesirable processes in the system. Scenario analysis was carried out, making it possible to propose a number of recommendations for the region’s sustainable development. A direction for the region’s development of further cognitive research is proposed.

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