Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs

Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3135225

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The second strand of literature analyses subjective expectations about individual level variables such as income (see Rozsypal and Schlafmann (2020) and Exler et al (2020), survival (Grevenbrock et al (2021)), retirement (Haider and Stephens (2007)), social security benefits (Dominitz et al (2003)), returns to education (Attanasio and Kaufmann (2014)), and portfolio returns (Vissing-Jorgensen (2003)). As part of this second strand, recent work has started to utilize newly available data to study subjective expectations of individual labor market outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare

et al. 2021

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Idiosyncratic labor risk is a prevalent phenomenon with important implications for individual choices. In labor market research it is commonly assumed that agents have rational expectations and therefore correctly assess the risk they face in the labor market. We analyse survey data for the U.S. and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their subjective expectations about future labor market transitions. Furthermore, we analyze the heterogeneity in the bias across different demographic groups and we find that high-school graduates tend to be strongly overoptimistic about their labor market prospects, whereas college graduates have rather precise beliefs. In the context of a quantitative heterogenous agents life cycle model we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on the life cycle allocation of income, consumption and wealth and implies a substantial loss in individual welfare compared to the allocation under full information. Moreover, we establish that the heterogeneity in the bias leads to pronounced differences in the accumulation of assets across individuals, and is thereby a quantitatively important driver of inequality in wealth.JEL-Codes: E210, D840.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare

et al. 2021

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“…And males' cognitive ability is not easily affected by the environment (Onyekuru, 2015). The 30-year-old and younger groups were lower than those of other age groups, indicating that younger parents have positive cognition of epidemic prevention and control (Grevenbrock, Groneck, Ludwig, and Zimper, 2018). The 50-year-old and above age groups had the lowest emotional score because older people have more stable emotions in the face of emergencies (Katharina, Nanna, Marguerite, Gregory, and Ian, 2018).…”

Section: Children's Behaviors and Parents' Mental Health Status Amongmentioning

confidence: 94%

The effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on children’s behavior and parents’ mental health in China: A research study

Bai

Wang

Liang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to explore the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on children’s behavior and their parents’ mental health in China. MethodsA total of 30861 children’s parents were selected from throughout China to complete the self-made Child behavior Questionnaire and Child Parents Mental Health Questionnaire. ResultsThe results showed that there were significant differences in children’s behavior scores in variables such as age, whether or not an only child and place of residence; There were significant differences in physical, emotional and cognitive scores of parents in variables such as gender, age, education, occupation, place of residence, whether there are medical staff in family, the relationship with children, and children’s age. The correlation analysis showed that children’s behavior and parents’ physical, emotion and cognition were significantly correlated with epidemic-related factors. The stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that epidemic-related factors can significantly predict children’s behavior and parents’ physical, emotion, and cognition. ConclusionsThese results can provide theoretical basis for the behavior management of children at home and the psychological adjustment of parents during the epidemic.

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“…They show that their model, calibrated with subjective expectations data from the HRS, can explain several regularities in the old-age savings behavior. See also Caliendo et al (2020) who study the implications of ambiguity in survival expectations and Ludwig and Zimper (2013), de Bresser (2019), and Grevenbrock et al (2021 on modeling the formation of survival expectations.…”

Section: Modeling Subjective Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%