Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Due to Sea Level Rise: The Case Study of the Atlantic Coast of Mainland Portugal

Abstract

Sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowlands will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of mainland Portugal. Some scenarios of extreme sea levels for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each sea-level rise scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with a spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at a national scale to identify areas more vulnerable to sea-level rise, which are key elements for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated that there will be 903 and 1146 km2 of vulnerable areas, respectively; the Lisbon district being identified as the most vulnerable in both scenarios. Results are available as a Web Map Service for the Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for the public and communities in general.

Thermal Performance and Comfort Conditions Analysis of a Vernacular Palafitic Timber Building in Portuguese Coastline Context

“…Compared with conventional solutions, it has a lower potential environmental impact, uses local materials and has the possibility of being moved or disassembled and relocated. Studies on coastal vulnerability and flooding assessment due to sea level rise [56,57] concluded that it is evident that inland waters, as the Ria de Aveiro estuary (with an arm connecting to the Praia de Mira lagoon), will be the most affected areas, corresponding also to an area with a high level of exposure of people and buildings. These studies evaluated the risk for 2025, 2050 and 2100 with different sea-level scenarios and different extreme event return periods.…”

“…The area of Praia de Mira is not an exception, showing high risk in some parts as early as in 2025 and increasing considerably in the scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The vulnerability and the risk of coastal areas represent considerable potential negative social and economic impacts [57]. Therefore, the implementation of timely adaptation measures is needed to minimize the impacts and the exponential costs associated, since the time required to study, design and implement these measures will be considerable.…”

Alarming coastal vulnerability of the deltaic and sandy beaches of North Africa

“…Global warming is expected to significantly increase coastal vulnerability due to potential changes in precipitation patterns, floods and of marine storms intensities 35 . Our results suggest that the arid deltaic and sandy beaches of the North African coasts are among the most vulnerable to disturbances from coastal hazards in the central and eastern Mediterranean Basin.…”

The Costs of Sea-Level Rise: Coastal Adaptation Investments vs. Inaction in Iberian Coastal Cities

“…Moreover, it has been estimated that 900 km 2 of the Portuguese coast could be subject to flood risk in 2050, considering 50 year return period extreme events and empirical sea-level rise projections. At the end of the century, the areas at risk of coastal flooding could increase by 27%, where Lisbon, Faro and Aveiro are the districts most at risk [37,38].…”