Coastal Louisiana landscape and storm surge evolution: 1850–2110

Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, Scott C.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Braud, DeWitt; Peele, R. Hampton; Foster‐Martinez, Madeline R.; Twilley, Robert R.

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02575-7

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The unstructured meshes used to represent the historical conditions and future projections of the coastal-land margin were adopted from the Siverd et al (2019b) study. These unstructured meshes span from the western North Atlantic Ocean (i.e., westward the 60 degrees longitude) and contain 1,478,916 vertices and 2,921,898 elements.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They represented the initial conditions of the model simulations due to observed historical eustatic SLR measurements and a conservative future eustatic SLR scenario [i.e., Intermediate-Low scenario from Sweet et al (2007)]. More details on the hydrodynamic model and the unstructured meshes can be found at Bilskie et al (2021) and Siverd et al (2019b), respectively.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 2010 condition is considered the base condition since it is the current time's nearest representation (i.e., 2021). The coastal land-margin representation of the circa 1850 conditions was not selected since, according to Siverd et al (2019b), the storm surge differences between 1850 and 1890 conditions were minimal. The selected future conditions were circa 2050 and 2090 to keep a consistent 40-yr interval between each era, as with the historical conditions selected.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The land-to-water isopleths were used to classify three general landscape regions: submerged (i.e., open water to wetland), intermediate (i.e., wetland), and high (i.e., high wetland). Siverd et al (2019b) used the land-to-water isopleths technique to develop simplified coastal landscapes for storm surge modeling that represented historical conditions (e.g., c. 1850, 1890, 1930, 1970, 1990, and 2010) and future projections (e.g., c. 2030, 2050, 2070, 2090, and 2110) of the MRDP. Their research found that local land and river management practices that starved the MRDP from critical sediment sources led to accelerated relative SLR that exacerbated coastal surge flood characteristics for the near-term historical and impending future conditions of the Louisiana coastal landmargin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The compound flood hazard zones are based on the flooding mechanisms that dominated the region, which are divided into hydrologic, coastal, and transition hazard zone. To assess the evolution of the compound flood hazard zones, the coastal landscapes (e.g., c. 1890-2090) developed by Siverd et al (2019b) are used in the compound flood modeling framework of Bilskie et al (2021). The spatial extent and rate of change in the coverage area of each compound flood hazard zones are quantified for each coastal land-margin condition, from which the evolution of the compound flood hazard zones are evaluated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Examination of Compound Flood Hazard Zones for Past, Present, and Future Low-Gradient Coastal Land-Margins

et al. 2021

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Recent events worldwide demonstrate how coastal communities of integrated natural and human systems are exposed to hydrological and coastal flooding processes. Standard flood hazard assessment practices account independently for rainfall-runoff, tides, storm surge flooding and not the non-linear combination commonly defined as compound flooding. This research evaluates compound flood hazard zones for past, present, and future (c. 1890–2090) conditions of the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP). The MRDP provides a low-gradient coastal land-margin representing similar landscapes around the world that are experiencing relative sea-level rise and serves as a warning beacon for our coastal settlements. A set of plausible synthetic storms and rainfall events, which account for antecedent rainfall-runoff, tropical cyclone-driven rainfall, and tropical cyclone-driven surge, are employed in a tide and surge hydrodynamic model that integrates rain over the mesh. This study demonstrates the evolution of the compound flood hazard zones from the 1890s, before major western settlement and alterations to the Mississippi River and deltaic system, to the present day and out to 2090. Furthermore, near-future projections of the compound flood hazard zones suggest that the coastal flood zone will suffer the most significant changes in coverage area due to a combination of increasing eustatic sea-level rise and alterations to the coastal land-margin during low flood events. Our results emphasize the need to establish evolution trends of compound flood hazard zones to enable more descriptive future projections under a changing climate. Such projections will aid policy-makers, stakeholders, and authorities as they pursue enhanced coastal resilience to compound flooding.

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Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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