Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract

The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. Abstract. This paper examines the increased potential risk of tidal inundations in the Pearl River delta, China, due to future rises in sea level. The research is based on tidal records of 54 tide gauges distributed across the delta plain, and employs mathematical calculations to predict potential rises of water level in different parts of the delta under a number of flood scenarios. After assessing a 72-year tidal record of Hong Kong and factors such as estuarine backwater effects and long-term geological subsidence, it suggests that a 30 cm rise in relative sea level at the mouth of the estuary is possible by 2030. Based on the prediction and five freshwater discharge scenarios, the potential impacts in water level across the delta plain are calculated. Three zones are identified as least affected, heavily affected and severely affected. The impacts are also translated into return periods of water level. It is suggested that in a large part of the delta plain, return periods will be shortened and hence will be increasingly vulnerable to tidal inundation. Finally, management implications are discussed along with assessment of adequacy of the existing tidal flood defences, as well as evaluation of the cost implications if they are to be improved.

Coastal Subsidence Monitoring Associated with Land Reclamation Using the Point Target Based SBAS-InSAR Method: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

“…The subsidence of the reclaimed land threatens infrastructure, and contributes to the relative sea level changes [62], which may cause saltwater intrusion [63,64] and destroy coastal biodiversity [37]. Assuming a mean sea level rise of 2.5 mm/year [33,65], the selected regions A, B, C, and D (shown in Figures 10-13) would fall to sea level in 114, 121, 225, and 313 years (see Table 2).…”

Land Subsidence Affects Coastal Zone Vulnerability (Pengaruh Penurunan Tanah Terhadap Kerentanan Wilayah Pesisir)

“…Coastal vulnerability to the effects of tidal inundation had occurred in almost all coastal areas around the world as happened in Indonesia (Marfai et al, 2007;Marfai, 2009;Nugraha et al, 2012;Sihombing et al, 2012 andWard et al, 2011); USA (Weiss et al, 2011;Zhang K., 2011;Heberger et al, 2011;Condon and Sheng, 2011;Parkinson and McCue, 2011); UK (Dawson et al, 2009); Turkey (Demirkesen et al, 2007 andDemirkesen et al, 2008); Cina (Huang et al, 2004); Egypt (Wöppelmann et al, 2013); also India (Kumar, 2006;Kumar dan Kunte, 2012). Successful management of coastal areas is needed and it is a challenge to resolve the tidal inundation problems in the future (Dawson et al, 2009), and the estimates of coastal vulnerability is indispensable to make adaptation strategies against the tidal inundation threat (Ward et al, 2011).…”

Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China

“…Climate change and sea level rise alter the hydrological cycle and its dynamics on global scales (Bates et al 2008, Dore 2005, Kabat et al 2004, as well as at local scales (Huang et al 2004, Liu et al 2009, Zhang et al 2008. Changes in regional extreme weather and climate events lead to severe threats to humans and terrestrial ecosystem components on various spatial scales (Kabat et al 2004).…”

“…The whole basin has suffered up to 50 year return period droughts in (Cui et al 2007), while at the same time the annual flooded area and affected population during 1981-2000 period increased 2.94 and 13.62 times in comparison with the period from 1950 to 1980 (Chen 2006b). Moreover, further land degradation, water pollution, and an estimated sea level rise of 20 -40 cm by 2030 put the delta area under more serious challenge of getting enough water resource (Huang et al 2004, Zhu et al 2002a). …”

“…Recent studies indicate that the future water use of the PRD is expected to increase significantly (Guneralp andSeto 2008, Zhu et al 2004), while at the same time the Pearl River Basin will likely become drier , Kaufmann et al 2007. Water shortage appears to become a serious problem for this water abundant delta area (Huang et al 2004, Zhu et al 2002a). …”