Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas

Edmonds, Douglas A.; Caldwell, Rebecca L.; Brondízio, Eduardo S.; Siani, Sacha M. O.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18531-4

Cited by 185 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…These are welcome additions to understanding populations at risk. New work has also examined aspects of the geography of LECZ, such as flooding in deltaic areas (Edmonds et al, 2020;Minderhoud et al, 2019) and modelling tidal heights (Muis et al, 2020;Taherkhani et al, 2020;Du et al, 2018;Pickering et al, 2017) and multiple stressors (Anderson et al, 2018;De Dominicis et al, 2020;Moftakhari et al, 2017) so relevant to improving estimates of coastal exposure itself. Along with improvements to understanding DEMs in urban areas 1340 (Pesaresi et al, 2021), these represent promising new avenues towards fuller understanding of seward hazards to town and city dwellers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Population and Urban Areas at Risk of Coastal Hazards, 1990–2015: How data choices matter

MacManus

Balk

Engin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The accurate estimation of population living in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), and at heightened risk from sea level rise, is critically important for policy makers and risk managers worldwide. This characterization of potential exposure depends not only on robust representations of coastal elevation and spatial population data, but also of settlements along the urban-rural continuum. The empirical basis for LECZ estimation has improved considerably in the 13 years since it was first estimated that 10 % of the world’s population, and an even greater share of the urban population, lived in the LECZ (McGranahan et al., 2007). Those estimates were constrained in several ways, most notably by a single 10-meter LECZ, but also by a dichotomous urban-rural proxy and population from a single source. This paper updates those initial estimates with newer, improved inputs and provides a range of estimates, along with sensitivity analyses that reveal the importance of understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying data. We estimate that between 750 million to nearly 1.1 billion persons globally, in 2015, live in the ≤ 10 m LECZ, with the variation depending on the elevation and population data sources used. The variations are considerably greater at more disaggregated levels, when finer elevation bands (e.g. the ≤ 5 m LECZ) or differing delineations between urban, quasi-urban and rural populations are considered. Despite these variations, there is general agreement that the LECZ is disproportionately home to urban dwellers, and that the urban population in the LECZ has grown more than urban areas outside the LECZ since 1990. We describe the main results across these new elevation, population, and urban proxy data sources in order to guide future research and improvements to characterizing risk in low elevation coastal zones. DOI: assigned upon completion of data peer-review.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Population and Urban Areas at Risk of Coastal Hazards, 1990–2015: How data choices matter

MacManus

Balk

Engin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The Amazon delta (Figure 1) is unique in several ways: The inordinate size of the catchment to which it is connected and the massive sediment supply have led to the formation of the world's largest delta with significant hydrological, sedimentological, morphological, and ecological diversity. The sheer size of the delta has implied widely varying area estimates: 465,000 km 2 [6], 467,100 km 2 [7], 160,662 km 2 [2], and 85,667 km 2 [8]. In [2], the authors defined the delta area based on the intersection of biophysical and political-administrative boundaries, and suggested that the larger estimates may be due to the full inclusion of tidal channels and flats not directly connected to the main river and channel network.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 1. Geomorphic area (defined as both land and water), habitable area (land area), and population increases in the Amazon delta [8], and 2020 population density [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Management, Conservation, and Restoration of the Amazon River Delta and Amazon-Influenced Guianas Coast: A Review

Anthony

Brondízio

Santos³

et al. 2021

Water

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The Amazon River delta may be currently characterized biophysically as a relatively preserved delta compared to the rampant vulnerability of many of the world’s large deltas. This status of relative preservation is reflected in a number of criteria: The still largely free-flowing nature of many of the rivers and the main stem of the Amazon that feed the delta in sediment, exceptional biodiversity, dominant shoreline accretion, and the absence of anthropogenically-generated subsidence. In this review, we show that these relatively reassuring conditions are progressively being called into question by the effects of dams on fluvial sediment supply to the delta, by increasing demographic, urban, and land development pressures in this still largely underpopulated delta, and by problems of governance that underplay aspects of basin-wide and deltaic environmental deterioration. A major challenge is that of bringing together these contrasting demands that are leading to the emergence of zones of environmental stress that test the resilience of this delta. An integral part of the strategy for the analysis of collective action, management, and conservation is that of considering the Amazon delta in terms of interacting socio-ecological systems. Pressures on the delta will be compounded in the future by decreasing fluvial sediment supply and sea-level rise. Although climate change is projected to generate surplus sediment, the rapid growth of dam constructions upstream of the delta will negatively impact the river’s sediment flux. Conservation and management of the Amazon River system aimed at keeping the delta resilient in the context of sea-level rise and reduction of sediment supply will require clear governance and better planning and anticipation, as well as socio-ecological integration. These are also requirements that will need to be implemented in the 1500 km-long coastal zone of the Guianas countries located west of the Amazon delta and the sediment dynamics and stability of which are largely determined by sediment supply from the Amazon.

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“…such as fluid withdrawal, increases the relative sea level rise of these coastal landscapes. Reductions in sediment supply due to upstream levees and dams lessen mitigation of subsidence [6], with an estimated 25 million people living on sediment-starved deltas [7]. Although 11,000 deltas globally have experienced net land gain over the past 30 years from increases in river fluvial sediment content from deforestation, as well as redistribution of sediments on deltas transitioning toward increasingly tide-dominated, these gains are not expected to be sustained under rising sea level conditions [8][9][10][11] and projected declines in fluvial sediment delivery [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of How Uncertainties in Management Decisions Are Addressed in Coastal Louisiana Restoration

Freeman

Pahl

White

et al. 2021

Water

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Louisiana has lost over 4800 km2 of coastal land since 1932, and a large-scale effort to restore coastal Louisiana is underway, guided by Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. This paper reviews science-based planning processes to address uncertainties in management decisions, and determine the most effective combination of restoration and flood risk reduction projects to reduce land loss, maintain and restore coastal environments, and sustain communities. The large-scale effort to restore coastal Louisiana is made more challenging by uncertainties in sediment in the Mississippi River, rising sea levels, subsidence, storms, oil and gas activities, flood-control levees, and navigation infrastructure. To inform decision making, CPRA uses structured approaches to incorporate science at all stages of restoration project planning and implementation to: (1) identify alternative management actions, (2) select the management action based on the best available science, and (3) assess performance of the implemented management decisions. Applied science and synthesis initiatives are critical for solving scientific and technical uncertainties in the successive stages of program and project management, from planning, implementation, operations, to monitoring and assessment. The processes developed and lessons learned from planning and implementing restoration in coastal Louisiana are relevant to other vulnerable coastal regions around the globe.

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Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas

Cited by 185 publications

References 45 publications

Estimating Population and Urban Areas at Risk of Coastal Hazards, 1990–2015: How data choices matter

Estimating Population and Urban Areas at Risk of Coastal Hazards, 1990–2015: How data choices matter

Sustainable Management, Conservation, and Restoration of the Amazon River Delta and Amazon-Influenced Guianas Coast: A Review

A Review of How Uncertainties in Management Decisions Are Addressed in Coastal Louisiana Restoration

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