Coastal Flood Modeling to Explore Adaptive Coastal Management Scenarios and Land-Use Changes Under Sea Level Rise

Louisor, Jessie; Brivois, Olivier; Mouillon, Paloma; Maspataud, Aurélie; Belz, Patrice; Laloue, Jean-Michel

doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.710086

Cited by 6 publications

References 45 publications

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Adaptation to sea level rise in France

Le Cozannet,

Cazenave

2024

Rend. Fis. Acc. Lincei

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Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.

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Adaptation to sea level rise in France

Le Cozannet,

Cazenave

2024

Rend. Fis. Acc. Lincei

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Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Thiéblemont,

le Cozannet,

Rohmer

et al. 2024

Anthropocene Coasts

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Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast.

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