CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens

Jacoby, Henry D.; Eckaus, Richard S.; Ellerman, A. Denny; Prinn, Ronald G.; Reiner, David; Yang, Zili

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol18-no3-2

“…Although the complexities of alternative implementation schemes may prevent attainment of the cost savings of an ideal trading regime (Hahn and Stavins, 1999), many studies have shown that the potential for cost reductions is great (e.g., Montgomery, Bernstein, and Rutherford, 1998;Jacoby et al, 1997;OECD, 1992;Ellerman, Jacoby, and Decaux, 1998). The analysis conducted here shows the same result.…”

Section: Emissions Tradingsupporting

confidence: 73%

“…(Equivalent variation, here denoted EV, is a measure of welfare that shows by how much regional well-being, roughly the level of consumption, changes as a result of a policy intervention.) As seen in previous analyses (Jacoby et al, 1997;Jacoby and Sue Wing, 1999;Kolstad, Light, and Rutherford, 1999), the Kyoto Protocol generates welfare losses across Annex B countries in the range 0.5-2.0%, except for Eastern European countries in transition (EET: countries that have moved or are moving from planned economies/communism to market/democratic economies/ governments), a block of nations that realizes minor short-term welfare gains from its improved comparative advantage in relation to the rest of Annex B. For Non-Annex B, the results show welfare losses in excess of those in Annex B for some regions, such as the Persian Gulf (RME), and net welfare gains for others, such as India (IND).…”

Section: The Reference Case With and Without The Kyoto Protocolsupporting

confidence: 72%

The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries

2001

Fuel and Energy Abstracts

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The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the needs of ongoing national and international discussions. To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas of the needed intellectual work, and additional essential areas are covered by other MIT departments, by collaboration with the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole, and by short-and long-term visitors to the Program. The Program involves sponsorship and active participation by industry, government, and non-profit organizations.To inform processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving the prediction of those variables that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate analysis need to be related to the economic, technological, and political forces that drive emissions, and to the results of international agreements and mitigation. Further, assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and analysis of mitigation strategies, need to be based on realistic evaluation of the uncertainties of climate science.This report is one of a series intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of climate issues, thereby contributing to informed debate about the climate issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Titles in the Report Series to date are listed on the inside back cover. AbstractUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the world's wealthier countries assumed binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement requires these countries to consider ways to minimize adverse effects on developing countries of these actions, transmitted through trade. Using a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that adverse effects fall mainly on energy-exporting countries, for some even greater than on countries that are assuming commitments. Removing existing fuel taxes and subsidies and using international permit trading would greatly reduce the adverse impacts and also reduce economic impacts on the countries taking on commitments. Another approach, preferential tariff reduction for developing countries, would benefit many developing countries, but would not target those most adversely affected. If instead, OECD countries directly compensated developing countries for losses, the required annual financial transfer would be on the order of $25 billion (1995 $US) in 2010.

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“…The EPPA model is a general equilibrium model of the world economy (9) that has very detailed considerations of all relevant energy, industrial, agricultural, and transportation sectors and uses comprehensive regional data for production, consumption, and trade (SI Text 4). The EPPA model has been used in a wide variety of policy applications (e.g., [11][12][13].…”

Section: Integrated Global System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and application of earth system models

Prinn

¹

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5°C and 7.4°C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4°C to 14°C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.climate change | energy and environment | climate policy A wide range of everyday human activity affects our environment: food production, transportation, manufacturing, urban development, population growth, supplying potable water, and waste disposal. The environmental effects include climate change, urban air pollution, lowered water quality, land degradation, ecosystem disruption, and human health. The climate issue exemplifies the challenge for sustaining a habitable earth. To forecast climate change and develop sound responses, we need to couple the human and natural components of the earth system. Such integrated assessments have many additional potential benefits: discovery of new interactions among natural and human climate system components, objective assessment of uncertainty in economic and climate projections, critical and quantitative analysis of policy proposals, and understanding connections to other science and policy issues (e.g., air pollution). Today, there are very significant policy debates regarding global climate change within most nations, contentious negotiations under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and periodic assessments under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1-3).Over the past 2 centuries, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and ma...

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“…The objective is to provide a portfolio of information that can be further analyzed and aggregated according to the abilities and values of the various participants in climate policy discussions. 9 Second, the development of such a structure is a research task-requiring a focusing of effort and redirection of available resources to climate change impacts and the benefits of emissions mitigation. The overriding priority in meeting these needs is research on the fundamental science of climate change impacts, with a special focus on natural ecosystems, their ability to adapt, and potential damage when they cannot.…”

Section: Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

Jacoby

¹

2004

Global Environmental Change

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The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the needs of ongoing national and international discussions. To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas of the needed intellectual work, and additional essential areas are covered by other MIT departments, by collaboration with the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole, and by short-and long-term visitors to the Program. The Program involves sponsorship and active participation by industry, government, and non-profit organizations.To inform processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving the prediction of those variables that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate analysis need to be related to the economic, technological, and political forces that drive emissions, and to the results of international agreements and mitigation. Further, assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and analysis of mitigation strategies, need to be based on realistic evaluation of the uncertainties of climate science.This report is one of a series intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of climate issues, thereby contributing to informed debate about the climate issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Titles in the Report Series to date are listed on the inside back cover.

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CO₂ Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens

Cited by 86 publications

References 12 publications

The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries

Development and application of earth system models

Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

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CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens

Cited by 86 publications

References 12 publications

The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries

Development and application of earth system models

Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

Contact Info

Product

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About

CO₂ Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens