Co-designing global target-seeking scenarios: A cross-scale participatory process for capturing multiple perspectives on pathways to sustainability

Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Collste, David; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Pereira, Laura; Selomane, Odirilwe; Galafassi, Diego; Vuuren, Detlef van; Leeuw, Sander van der

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198

Cited by 49 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 114 publications

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“…The knowledge co-creation process involving the participants and researchers in value-based participatory scenario building was designed based on current approaches developed within the fields of sustainability research and futures studies, and in relation to IPBES. Thus, the sequence of participatory exercises in each workshop built on (a) the recent Life Framework of Values (Arias-Arévalo et al 2018;O'Connor and Kenter 2019), and (b) the Three Horizons framework for futures exploration (Sharpe et al 2016;Aguiar et al 2019). In addition, we aimed to address themes identified as understudied in recent scenario literature, particularly the role of underlying or indirect drivers (i.e.…”

Section: Process Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected the Three Horizons framework due to our previous experience with its application as a visual facilitation tool guiding participatory scenario-building exercises, in which it proved intuitive and conducive for exploring future pathways in heterogenous stakeholder groups (Aguiar et al 2019(Aguiar et al , 2020. In our current adoption of the approach, we focused particularly on Horizon 3 (current actions and the future these may lead to) and Horizons 2 (potential innovative actions that may be influential for the future).…”

Section: Process Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance

et al. 2021

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Reaching sustainable and just futures for people and nature requires tackling complex social-ecological challenges across multiple scales, from local to global. Pathways towards such futures are largely driven by people’s decisions and actions, underpinned by multiple types of motivations and values. Thus, understanding the link between potential futures and the values underpinning them represents a key question of current sustainability research, recently embraced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Particularly the understanding of causal chains leading from values to futures across different contexts and scales is vital to identify which sustainability pathways to collectively pursue. In this study, we build on a transdisciplinary knowledge co-creation process in an array of local case studies in protected areas in the Czechia (Central Europe). We apply the Life Framework of Values and the Three Horizons framework in an innovative value-based participatory scenario building process to explore the relationships between (1) multiple types of values, (2) actions taken by different types of stakeholders, and (3) their potential impacts on nature, nature’s contributions to people (including ecosystem services) and good quality of life. The resulting local-scale value-based pathways show the complex relationship between multiple types of values for nature and potential future trajectories. Finally, we reflect on the utility of value-based participatory scenario planning as a means to strengthen sustainable governance. We highlight that if participatory deliberation of values is to support decision-making processes, its design needs to carefully reflect local context and institutional set-up.

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Section: Process Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Process Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance

et al. 2021

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“…The holistic approach they used allows for considering physical, political, commercial and socio-economic aspects of water availability, demand, access, etc at subnational to global level. Another innovative approach is proposed by Aguiar et al (2020) to codesign new and alternative narratives for top-down (target-seeking) global scenarios. Through a multistakeholder process capturing multiple sub-global perspectives on pathways to sustainability, the approach seeks to surface convergences, and crucially, divergences between global and regional perspectives on pathways to reach the SDGs to develop new global narratives that better reflect core debates and tensions in the society.…”

Section: Developments That Could Help Address This Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Pereira

Kuiper

Selomane

et al. 2021

Ecosystems and People

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Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.

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“…In this, the three interrelated parallel pathways; the RCPs, SSPs and SPAs explore the impact climate change will have on social-ecological systems, the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks, and the costs and benefits of various policy mixes (Ebi et al, 2014). An emerging trend in impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation research, therefore, is to improve the links between the global and sub-national (hereafter local) level by extending the parallel scenario framework and incorporating outputs into applied adaptation decision-making processes (Campos et al, 2016;Cradock-Henry et al, 2018Aguiar et al, 2020;Schmitt Olabisi et al, 2020). Such extended SSPs have been developed for a range of settings and problems, including specific sectors and activities such as agriculture and forestry (Daigneault et al, 2019;Mitter et al, 2020;Lehtonen et al, 2021), and scales and places (Frame et al, 2018;Lino et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2020;Gomes et al, 2020;Pedde et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Local scenarios can improve understanding of the types and magnitude of change, explore sensitivities, and evaluate ways of managing risks. Often these scenarios are used as part of an adaptive planning or pathways process that begins with a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, and then bounds future uncertainty within a manageable set of conditions (Cradock-Henry et al, 2018;Frame et al, 2018;Aguiar et al, 2020). However, development of these scenarios assumes seamless ways to coordinate and apply the frameworks from the global through the regional and national to the local while accommodating new directions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Cradock-Henry¹,

Frame²

2021

Front. Clim.

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The parallel scenario process provides a framework for developing plausible scenarios of future conditions. Combining greenhouse gas emissions, social and economic trends, and policy responses, it enables researchers and policy makers to consider global-scale interactions, impacts and implications of climate change. Increasingly, researchers are developing extended scenarios, based on this framework, and incorporating them into adaptation planning and decision-making processes at the local level. To enable the identification of possible impacts and assess vulnerability, these local-parallel scenarios must successfully accommodate diverse knowledge systems, multiple values, and competing priorities including both “top down” modeling and “bottom-up” participatory processes. They must link across scales, to account for the ways in which global changes affect and influence decision-making in local places. Due to the growing use of scenarios, there is value in assessing these developments using criteria or, more specifically, heuristics that may be implicitly acknowledged rather than formally monitored and evaluated. In this Perspective, we reflect on various contributions regarding the value of heuristics and propose the adoption of current definitions for Relevance, Credibility, and Legitimacy for guiding local scenario development as the most useful as well as using Effectiveness for evaluation purposes. We summarize the internal trade-offs (personal time, clarity-complexity, speed-quality, push-pull) and the external stressors (equity and the role of science in society) that influence the extent to which heuristics are used as “rules of thumb,” rather than formal assessment. These heuristics may help refine the process of extending the parallel scenario framework to the local and enable cross-case comparisons.

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Co-designing global target-seeking scenarios: A cross-scale participatory process for capturing multiple perspectives on pathways to sustainability

Cited by 49 publications

References 114 publications

Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance

Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

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