CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP

Séférian, Roland

doi:10.22033/esgf/cmip6.1391

Cited by 17 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…On the other hand, the decadal changes in the amplitude of seasonal pCO 2 variations between 1985-1989-2018) reveal a much better agreement (relative to Figure 12a) between the median of the observational products and the ensemble spread of the individual LEs. Most importantly, with one exception over the three subtropical biomes (NH-STSS, NH-STPS, SH-STPS) and for each LE within these regions, the range of outcomes for modeled pCO 2 seasonality changes (the range indicated by the whiskers) does not intersect with a zero trend or go negative.…”

Section: Emergence Of Forced Trends With Biome Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 72%

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

Rodgers,

Schwinger,

Fassbender

et al. 2023

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in the air‐sea CO2 flux in most regions of the global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux seasonality from models and observation‐based estimates, focusing on both a present‐day climatology and decadal changes between the 1980s and 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) and observation‐based estimates (pCO2 products) of surface pCO2 seasonality disagree in amplitude and phase, primarily due to discrepancies in the seasonal variability in surface DIC. Second, the seasonal cycle in pCO2 has increased in amplitude over the last three decades in both pCO2 products and GOBMs. Third, decadal increases in pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in subtropical biomes for both pCO2 products and GOBMs are driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). In subpolar and Southern Ocean biomes, however, the seasonality change for GOBMs is dominated by Cant invasion, whereas for pCO2 products an indeterminate combination of Cant invasion and climate change modulates the changes. Fourth, biome‐aggregated decadal changes in the amplitude of pCO2 seasonal variability are largely detectable against both mapping uncertainty (reducible) and natural variability uncertainty (irreducible), but not at the gridpoint scale over much of the northern subpolar oceans and over the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of sustained high‐quality seasonally‐resolved measurements over these regions.

show abstract

Section: Emergence Of Forced Trends With Biome Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 72%

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

Rodgers,

Schwinger,

Fassbender

et al. 2023

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Accordingly, we have adopted this as a baseline to study the potential distribution of both mosquitofish species under future conditions. We considered the future climate projections for the period 2081–2100, according to the fifth IPCC report (IPCC, 2014 ) and for four Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs), 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85, processed based on the CNRM‐ESM2‐1 Global Circulation model (Seferian, 2018 ). Considering different SSPs, we account for different scenarios of future development based on different climate policies (SSP1: sustainability, SSP2: Middle paths, SSP3: Regional rivalry, SSP5: Fossil‐fueled development).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Off to new shores: Climate niche expansion in invasive mosquitofish (Gambusia spp.)

Jourdan

Riesch

Cunze

2021

Ecology and Evolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…All study data are included in the article and/or SI Appendix . The data from three CMIP6 models used in this study ( 89 – 91 ) are publicly available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ . Surface observations of PM 2.5 , meteorological variables from reanalysis datasets, satellite observations of burned area, and fire-emission inventories are publicly available through the links provided at the corresponding references, as described in Materials and Methods .…”

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate

Xie

Lin

Decharme

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Significance Record-setting fires in the western United States over the last decade caused severe air pollution, loss of human life, and property damage. Enhanced drought and increased biomass in a warmer climate may fuel larger and more frequent wildfires in the coming decades. Applying an empirical statistical model to fires projected by Earth System Models including climate–ecosystem–socioeconomic interactions, we show that fine particulate pollution over the US Pacific Northwest could double to triple during late summer to fall by the late 21st century under intermediate- and low-mitigation scenarios. The historic fires and resulting pollution extremes of 2017–2020 could occur every 3 to 5 y under 21st-century climate change, posing challenges for air quality management and threatening public health.

show abstract

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

Off to new shores: Climate niche expansion in invasive mosquitofish (Gambusia spp.)

Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About