Background
We investigated the association between time-averaged area under the curve (AAUC) of CMV viral load (VL) by D100 and overall survival (OS) at one-year post-hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT).
Methods
A retrospective cohort study, including patients receiving HCT between 2010.6 and 2017.12 from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. AAUC was calculated for patients with detected VL. Patients were categorized into “non-controllers” (Q4) and “controllers” (Q1-3) using the highest AAUC quartile as cutoff. Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox models were used to estimate the association between AAUC and OS. Patients with non-detected CMV VL were categorized into “elite-controllers” (R+ or R-/D+) and “R-/D-”.
Results
The study (N=952) included 282 controllers, 93 non-controllers, 275 elite-controllers, and 302 R-/D-. OS was 80.1% and 58.1% for controllers and non-controllers, respectively. In multivariable models, non-controllers had worse OS versus controllers (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.65, 95% CI 1.71-4.12). In landmark analyses, CMV controllers had similar OS as elite-controllers (HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.83-1.91) or R-/D- (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.64-1.5).
Conclusion
CMV non-controllers had worse OS at one-year post-HCT. CMV controllers had similar OS as elite-controllers or R-/D-. Future studies are needed to validate our AAUC cutoff across different cohorts and CMV management strategies.