Introduction: The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. Results: There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. Conclusions: In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis.
IntroductionRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) is an aggressive disease, recurring in up to 40% of patients who are initially treated for a localized tumour.1 About one-third of patients with RCC have metastatic disease at diagnosis.2,3 Advances in our understanding of the biology of RCC and particularly the role of angiogenesis in the progress of the clear cell subtype have led to the development of oral tyrosine kinase inhibitors with activity mostly against vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGF-2). These novel targeted therapies have transformed the management of metastatic RCC (mRCC). 4,5 More than 80% of patients achieve clinical benefit in the form of objective response to treatment or disease stabilization with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Additionally, median overall survival with the targeted therapies is now greater than two years, which is more than double the overall survival seen in the interferon-α era.