Clinical parameter-based prediction model for neurosyphilis risk stratification

Abstract

Accurately predicting neurosyphilis prior to a lumbar puncture (LP) is critical for the prompt management of neurosyphilis. However, a valid and reliable model for this purpose is still lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for the accurate identification of neurosyphilis in patients with syphilis. The training cohort included 9,504 syphilis patients who underwent initial neurosyphilis evaluation between 2009 and 2020, while the validation cohort comprised 526 patients whose data were prospectively collected from January 2021 to September 2021. Neurosyphilis was observed in 35.8% (3,400/9,504) of the training cohort and 37.6% (198/526) of the validation cohort. The nomogram incorporated factors such as age, male gender, neurological and psychiatric symptoms, serum RPR, a mucous plaque of the larynx and nose, a history of other STD infections, and co-diabetes. The model exhibited good performance with concordance indexes of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.83-0.85) and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, along with well-fitted calibration curves. This study developed a precise nomogram to predict neurosyphilis risk in syphilis patients, with potential implications for early detection prior to an LP.