Clinical and statistical prediction: A reformulation and some new data.

Holt, Robert R.

doi:10.1037/h0041045

Cited by 169 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…It is interesting to note that while general impression and overall recommendation were highly correlated, general impression, which was a mechanical combination of expert ratings, was more predictive than the subjective integration of this information as reflected in overall recommendation. This is consistent with the literature on clinical versus statistical prediction, which has generally found that expert judgment can be useful in assessing specific competencies, but that when it comes to integrating information, mechanical combination tends to outperform expert judgment (Holt, 1958;Huse, 1962;Meyer, 1956;Trankell, 1959). Holt (1958) found that using a combined technique of clinical and mechanical prediction was more effective than making a purely clinical prediction about a candidate.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…This is consistent with the literature on clinical versus statistical prediction, which has generally found that expert judgment can be useful in assessing specific competencies, but that when it comes to integrating information, mechanical combination tends to outperform expert judgment (Holt, 1958;Huse, 1962;Meyer, 1956;Trankell, 1959). Holt (1958) found that using a combined technique of clinical and mechanical prediction was more effective than making a purely clinical prediction about a candidate. Further research is recommended to identify the optimal combination of expert judgment and mechanical combination in assessment practice.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…The magnitude of the standardized coefficients for General Impression (.15-.16) was consistent with meta-analytic estimates of the IPA validity for nonmanagerial jobs (uncorrected r = .19; Morris et al, 2015). Although modest, the finding of incremental validity stands in contrast to past research that has failed to support incremental validity of assessors over the test battery (Holt, 1958;Huse, 1962;Meyer, 1956;Trankell, 1959).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

“…Inaccuracies in clinical predictions could result from reliance on heuristic rules wherein assessors do not optimally use the available information (Camerer & Johnson, 1991;Garb, 2003). There has been limited empirical research on the incremental validity of assessor recommendations in IPA, with a few studies reporting validities as high as .77 (Meyer, 1956) or as low as -.05 (Miner, 1970), and studies failing to find incremental validity over the tests used in the assessment process (Holt, 1958;Huse, 1962;Meyer, 1956;Trankell, 1959). Empirical support for the use of individual psychological assessment is limited for a number of reasons, to include range restriction, criterion contamination, small sample size, unreliability of the predictor and criterion, and rater errors.…”

Section: Personnel Assessment and Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Validity of Individual Psychological Assessments for Entry-Level Police and Firefighter Positions

Kwaske¹

2015

PAD

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

Section: Personnel Assessment and Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Validity of Individual Psychological Assessments for Entry-Level Police and Firefighter Positions

Kwaske¹

2015

PAD

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“…The study also struck at the heart of an important debate in the philosophy underlying clinical psychology, namely the extent to which the science should be nomothetic (concerned with general laws that apply to groups of people) or idiographic (concerned with particular individuals). Many clinicians who found Meehl's results distasteful were clearly in the latter group (Holt, 1962).The most eloquent -and persistent -of Meehl's critics has been Holt (1958;2004). It is therefore instructive to consider the kinds of arguments that were brought to bear against Meehl's findings.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

On Ignoring Scientific Evidence: The Bumpy Road to Enlightenment

Hogarth

2006

SSRN Journal

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It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent with their theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment and decision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that "clinical" judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superior to more "theoretically correct" methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting of variables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions can sometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to the apparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomena better than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness, asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only "correct" in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy. 3The concept of mental models is a useful way of thinking about how people make sense of and understand what happens in the world. Thus, in dealing with the physical world, humans share similar mental models concerning the effects of gravity.For example, if you let something slip from your hands, you expect it to fall. Many of our models are the result of our interactions with the world and are largely tacit in nature (Hogarth, 2001). On the other hand, models can also be formalized and Surprising results can have three causes: (1) the method used to obtain the result was flawed (in the example just given, perhaps there is something wrong with your eyesight?); (2) the model really is incorrect (left by themselves, objects do float instead of fall); and (3) there are specific circumstances -perhaps not previously encounteredwhere the model does not apply (perhaps you observed the object while traveling in a space vehicle where gravity has no effect?).Relative to our ability to understand, there is no question that the world is complicated. Thus, the models (and theories) we hold represent the accumulation of both our own experience and that of our ancestors. This knowledge -although 4 imperfect -has taken considerable time to develop and thus, when the predictions of models fail, one can understand why people do not wish to abandon cherished beliefs. seems almost trivial to state that the model should be amended -either rejected as incorrect or specified to be more limited than originally thought. However, the history of science is replete with examples where this does not happen. Indeed, some time ago Kuhn (1962) brilliantly described the difficulty of replacing obsolete scientific paradigms (see also below).The purpose of this chapter is to discuss this phenomenon with respect to the field of judgment and decision making. There are two reasons why this field provides an interesting setting for this issue. First, for scientists ...

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PROBE: A Computer Instrument for Field Surveys of Psychiatric Disorder

Benfari¹

1970

Arch Gen Psychiatry

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Clinical and statistical prediction: A reformulation and some new data.

Cited by 169 publications

References 9 publications

The Validity of Individual Psychological Assessments for Entry-Level Police and Firefighter Positions

The Validity of Individual Psychological Assessments for Entry-Level Police and Firefighter Positions

On Ignoring Scientific Evidence: The Bumpy Road to Enlightenment

PROBE: A Computer Instrument for Field Surveys of Psychiatric Disorder

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