Clinical and epidemiological features discriminating confirmed COVID-19 patients from SARS-CoV-2 negative patients at screening centres in Madagascar

Raberahona, Mihaja; Rakotomalala, Rado; Rakotomijoro, Etienne; Rahaingoalidera, T.; Andry, Christophe Elody; Mamilaza, Natacha; Razafindrabekoto, Lova Dany Ella; Rafanomezantsoa, Efrasie; Andriananja, Volatiana; Andrianasolo, Radonirina Lazasoa; Razafimahefa, Soloniaina Hélio; Rakotoarivelo, R.; Randria, Mamy Jean de Dieu

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.151

Cited by 10 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 11 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Regarding clinical signs, although symptoms of COVID‐19 are considered to be non‐specific, the five most common clinical manifestations (fever, cough, weakness, headache and runny nose) were significantly associated with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in our study. Indeed, a recently published article from one Antananarivo hospital leveraged this finding to adopt a clinical screening score used to assess the probability of COVID‐19 infection 41 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID‐19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march‐september 2020

Randremanana

Andriamandimby

Rakotondramanga

et al. 2021

Influenza Resp Viruses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Following the first detection of SARS‐CoV‐2 in passengers arriving from Europe on 19 March 2020, Madagascar took several mitigation measures to limit the spread of the virus in the country. Methods Nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected from travellers to Madagascar, suspected SARS‐CoV‐2 cases and contact of confirmed cases. Swabs were tested at the national reference laboratory using real‐time RT‐PCR. Data collected from patients were entered in an electronic database for subsequent statistical analysis. All distribution of laboratory‐confirmed cases were mapped, and six genomes of viruses were fully sequenced. Results Overall, 26,415 individuals were tested for SARS‐CoV‐2 between 18 March and 18 September 2020, of whom 21.0% (5,553/26,145) returned positive. Among laboratory‐confirmed SARS‐CoV‐2–positive patients, the median age was 39 years (IQR: 28‐52), and 56.6% (3,311/5,553) were asymptomatic at the time of sampling. The probability of testing positive increased with age with the highest adjusted odds ratio of 2.2 [95% CI: 1.9‐2.5] for individuals aged 49 years and more. Viral strains sequenced belong to clades 19A, 20A and 20B indicative of several independent introduction of viruses. Conclusions Our study describes the first wave of the COVID‐19 in Madagascar. Despite early strategies in place Madagascar could not avoid the introduction and spread of the virus. More studies are needed to estimate the true burden of disease and make public health recommendations for a better preparation to another wave.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID‐19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march‐september 2020

Randremanana

Andriamandimby

Rakotondramanga

et al. 2021

Influenza Resp Viruses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another measure to stop the spread of the virus is to detect positive cases as early as possible [26]. Various studies in several countries show that isolation is one of the fastest ways to prevent the spread of Covid-19 [27] [28].…”

Section: Positive Cases Detection Strategy and Isolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the high cost of the tests, the implementation of this technique seems impossible for underdeveloped countries like Madagascar. Studies have been done for clinical signs that can help specialists in anticipation and decision making [26].…”

Section: Positive Cases Detection Strategy and Isolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Control of the Coronavirus 2019 Disease in Madagascar

Raherinirina¹,

Rafamatanantsoa²,

Fandresena³

et al. 2021

OJMSi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For Madagascar, with the uncertainty over vaccines against the novel coronavirus 2019 and its variants, non-pharmaceutical approach is widely used. Our objective is to propose a mathematical control model which will serve as a tool to help decision-makers in the strategy to be implemented to better face the pandemic. By separating asymptomatic cases which are often not reported and symptomatic who are hospitalized after tests; we develop a mathematical model of the propagation of covid-19 in Madagascar, by integrating control strategies. We study the stability of the model by expressing the basic reproduction number using the next-generation matrix. Simulation with different parameters shows the effects of non-pharmaceutical measures on the speed of the disease spread. By integrating a control parameter linked to compliance with barrier measures in the virus propagation equation, we were able to show the impacts of the implementation of social distancing measures on the basic reproduction number. The strict application of social distancing measures and total confinement is unfavorable for economic situation even if they allow the contamination to be reduced quickly. Without any restrictions, the disease spreads at high speed and the peak is reached fairly quickly. In this condition, hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate increases rapidly. With 50% respect for non-pharmaceutical strategies such as rapid detection and isolation of positive cases and barrier gestures; the basic reproduction number R 0 can go down from 3 to 1.7. The pressures on the economic and social situation are rather viable. It is the most suitable for the Malagasy health system. The results proposed are a way to control the spread of the disease and limit its devastation in a country like Madagascar.

show abstract

“…Since its emergence in Wuhan, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shaken up scientific communities around the world [1]. Currently, there are more than 100,000 articles published according to the database "COVID-19 primer" (https://covid19primer.com) most of whom are interested in modeling and fo-recasting [2] [3] [4]. The case of less developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa such as Madagascar is still less studied because of insufficient data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Modelling of COVID-19 Dynamic in the Context of Madagascar

Raherinirina¹,

Fandresena²,

Hajalalaina³

et al. 2021

OJMSi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling the propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 in Madagascar, with all its specificities. With the strategy of the Malagasy state, which consists of isolating all suspected cases and hospitalized confirmed case, we get an epidemic model with seven compartments: susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), Asymptomatic (A), Hospitalized (H), Cured (C) and Death (D). In addition to the classical deterministic models used in epidemiology, the stochastic model offers a natural representation of the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. We inferred the models with the official data provided by the COVID-19 Command Center (CCO) of Madagascar, between March and August 2020. The basic reproduction number R 0 and the other parameters were estimated with a Bayesian approach. We developed an algorithm that allows having a temporal estimate of this number with confidence intervals. The estimated values are slightly lower than the international references. Generally, we were able to obtain a simple but effective model to describe the spread of the disease.

show abstract

Clinical and epidemiological features discriminating confirmed COVID-19 patients from SARS-CoV-2 negative patients at screening centres in Madagascar

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

The COVID‐19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march‐september 2020

The COVID‐19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march‐september 2020

Mathematical Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Control of the Coronavirus 2019 Disease in Madagascar

Probabilistic Modelling of COVID-19 Dynamic in the Context of Madagascar

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About