CLIMEX and MED-FOES Models for Predicting the Variability in Growth Potential and Persistence of Mediterranean Fruit Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) Populations

Abstract

CLIMEX and MED-FOES models integrate climate and data on Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), biology and use it to define the environmental suitability for the pest at specific geographical locations. CLIMEX calculates growth indices as indicators of conditions that are suitable for medfly population growth. MED-FOES incorporates additional information on pest management interventions to simulate the process and timing of medfly eradication. CLIMEX simulations of climatic suitability in California and Florida indicated that the most favorable periods for medfly population growth are March through May and October through November, whereas the environment would be especially stressful during the summer months, except when irrigation is applied. With irrigation, California is highly suitable for medfly population growth during the summer months. Due to cool temperatures, medfly populations are likely to decline significantly in January through February in Los Angeles, Tampa, and Miami, and probably not survive in San Francisco. According to MED-FOES simulations, it possibly would take longer to eradicate medfly from California than Florida, particularly if the incursions are initiated in the summer months. Medfly annual growth indices for the ENSO La Niña years are relatively low for San Francisco and Los Angeles but above neutral for Tampa and very high for Miami. During the El Niño phase, the growth index remains unchanged for San Francisco, increases for Los Angeles, and decreases for Tampa and Miami. CLIMEX and MED-FOES models are useful for informing plans to manage invasion threats from medfly and other invasive insects.

Simultaneous silencing of gut nucleases and a vital target gene by adult dsRNA feeding enhances RNAi efficiency and mortality inCeratitis capitataadults

“…Climate change poses new risks of alien pest insect invasion and expansion into territories [47]. Furthermore, insecticide resistance is becoming a serious problem al C. capitata [48,49].…”

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates

“…Previous studies have predicted the PGD of the MFF by using the CLIMEX model [ 24 , 26 ], which lists MFF parameters as an example [ 27 ]. However, these predictions did not encompass all documented distributions of MFF, most likely because records of the known occurrence of this species have been recently updated.…”

Review of surveillance systems for tephritid fruit fly threats in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States

“…Local climate at the destination of incursions is another key component of risk ( Stephens et al 2016 ), including the effects of artificial irrigation (e.g., Szyniszewska et al 2020 ). In Australia, modeling has identified that the optimal climatic niche for B. tryoni is moving south, primarily along the coast ( Sultana et al 2017 , Simpson et al 2020 ).…”

“…Similarly, trapping is conducted year-round in southern California, except in Imperial County and Coachella Valley in the height of summer ( Gilbert et al 2013 ). Further north in California, winter cold limits fruit fly persistence ( De Villiers et al 2016 , Szyniszewska et al 2020 ). In the San Francisco Bay area, trimedlure, methyl eugenol, and torula yeast traps are deployed from April to November, while cuelure traps are set out from June through October.…”