Climatology and Trends in Hourly Precipitation for the Southeast United States

Brown, Vincent M.; Keim, Barry D.; Black, Alan W.

doi:10.1175/jhm-d-19-0004.1

Cited by 31 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…The increasing frequency and intensity of severe climatic events due to climate change is likely to further develop marsh diebacks similar to those we observed in Charleston (Brown et al, 2019; Dai, 2013; Paerl et al, 2019). Long-term vegetation loss, as shown in this study and previous work, increases the vulnerability of salt marsh ecosystems to SLR (Baustian et al, 2012; Mudd et al, 2009; 2010; Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…The increasing frequency and intensity of severe climatic events due to climate change is likely to further develop long-term marsh diebacks, thereby increasing the vulnerability of these ecosystems to SLR (Brown et al, 2019; Dai, 2013; Paerl et al, 2019). Thus, the effects of extreme climatic events, such as drought and extreme precipitation, must be incorporated into assessments of the resilience of salt marsh ecosystems to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, lower income populations from underrepresented minority communities are more likely to occupy areas that are vulnerable to flooding and extreme climatic events (Chakraborty et al, 2014; Eisenman et al, 2007). Keeping urban marshes in place represents an effective climate change adaptation strategy with increasing relevance over time, insofar as the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes are already increasing (Brown et al, 2019; Paerl et al, 2019). In comparison to their natural ecosystem counterparts, much less information is available on the vulnerability or resilience of urban salt marshes to accelerated SLR.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

Rolando¹,

Hodges

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has been increasing in the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Sudden dieback events triggered by extreme climatic events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. We provide evidence that about 15% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10- and 20-years after dieback events in two case studies in the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico USA, respectively. In both case studies, dieback onset coincided with severe drought events. In West Ashley, SC, dieback areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Restoration by grass planting was shown to be effective in the South Carolina urban marsh, indicating that the stressors that caused dieback may be overcome despite that most of dieback areas have not recovered naturally. A mechanistic modelling approach was used to predict the resilience of the South Carolina salt marsh to accelerated SLR under different scenarios of primary productivity, ecological management, and rates of SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m-2 y-1) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm 100 y-1, whereas a non-restored mudflat would rapidly lose all of its elevation capital. Further, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm 100 y-1, most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, both climate change adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently needed to preserve highly valuable present-day marsh ecosystems close to urban environments.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

Rolando¹,

Hodges

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…This computation consequently also filters out large spatial scale interannual variability. For example, ENSO has been shown to influence the southeast United States' interannual and interseasonal climate dynamics (Brown et al, 2019), and will not be captured with this temporal average. The 7-year running average provides a balance between the large variability in seasonal or annual precipitation averages and reduction of the signal due to smoothing; thus, the 7-year average will be used in the subsequent comparison to the Gulf of Mexico wind indices.…”

Section: Correlation Between Gulf Of Mexico Component Indices and Pre...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Technique for Century-Scale Wind Component Indices

et al. 2021

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Advancing the understanding of how variations in the climate over the ocean influences the weather over the United States can be aided by developing marine climatic indices. Herein, wind component indices are developed using nearly 125 years of wind observations from ships. A new technique using probability density functions for the values of meridional and zonal wind components is developed to create indices for a user-selected region and accumulation interval (e.g., annual or seasonal) over a climatological period. The index is a measure of the shift in the likelihood of values above or below a threshold for a given season or year as compared to the long-term (e.g., 125 year) probability distribution. The new index method is demonstrated using ship-based wind observations for select regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Ship observations are extracted from release 3.0.0 of the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. Prior to index creation, an assessment of wind data quality is completed, and suspect observations are removed. The method to create a probabilistic wind component index is described along with a metric of the uncertainty in the calculated index. Two wind component indices, for regions in the north Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico, are presented to demonstrate the technique. Using the Gulf of Mexico index as a case study, we compare the wind component indices to precipitation measured over the Gulf coastal states and identify several relationships between multi-year changes in winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and precipitation on a seasonal basis. Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of the onshore/offshore component wind indices derived from seasonal wind forecasts could provide a metric for future prediction of seasonal or annual precipitation to support the agricultural sector. The index method demonstrated can be applied to other spatiotemporal regions for different parameters and using other source datasets.

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“…As Earth’s climate continues to change, life on our planet will be determined not only by higher temperatures [ 1 ] and rising sea levels [ 2 ], but also by changes in the frequency and intensity of climatic events [ 3 ]. For example, precipitation events are expected to intensify as heavy rainfall is condensed into shorter periods of time [ 4 ]. Hurricanes are expected to become more extreme [ 5 , 6 ], moving more slowly, with faster winds [ 7 ] and heavier precipitation [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Contribute to Sudden Vegetation Dieback in a Coastal Salt Marsh

Stagg

Osland

Moon

et al. 2021

Plants

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Climate extremes are becoming more frequent with global climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological regime shifts. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in Texas suffered sudden vegetation dieback following an extreme precipitation and flooding event associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Historical salt marsh dieback events have been linked to climate extremes, such as extreme drought. However, to our knowledge, this is the first example of extreme precipitation and flooding leading to mass mortality of the salt marsh foundation species, Spartina alterniflora. Here, we investigated the relationships between baseline climate conditions, extreme climate conditions, and large-scale plant mortality to provide an indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme precipitation events. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with plant species tolerant of hypersaline conditions, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations, and flood-tolerant species, including S. alterniflora, at lower elevations. We quantified a flooding threshold for wetland collapse under baseline conditions characterized by incremental increases in flooding (i.e., sea level rise). We proposed that the sudden widespread dieback of S. alterniflora following Hurricane Harvey was the result of extreme precipitation and flooding that exceeded this threshold for S. alterniflora survival. Indeed, S. alterniflora dieback occurred at elevations above the wetland collapse threshold, illustrating a heightened vulnerability to flooding that could not be predicted from baseline climate conditions. Moreover, the spatial pattern of vegetation dieback indicated that underlying stressors may have also increased susceptibility to dieback in some S. alterniflora marshes.Collectively, our results highlight a new mechanism of sudden vegetation dieback in S. alterniflora marshes that is triggered by extreme precipitation and flooding. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering interactions between multiple abiotic and biotic stressors that can lead to shifts in tolerance thresholds and incorporating climate extremes into climate vulnerability assessments to accurately characterize future climate threats.

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Climatology and Trends in Hourly Precipitation for the Southeast United States

Cited by 31 publications

References 66 publications

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

A New Technique for Century-Scale Wind Component Indices

Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Contribute to Sudden Vegetation Dieback in a Coastal Salt Marsh

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