Climatological Drought Analyses and Projection Using SPI and PDSI: Case Study of the Arkansas Red River Basin

Lu, Lingeng; Hong, Yang; Looper, J. P.; Riley, Rachel; Yong, Bin; Zhang, Zengxin; Hocker, James E.; Shafer, Mark

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000619

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 6 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…The index is used for both research and operational purposes in over 60 countries (e.g. Bordi et al, 2009;Moreira et al, 2012;Sienz et al, 2012;Gocic and Trajkovic, 2013;Liu et al, 2013;Dutra et al, 2014;Zargar et al, 2014;Jenkins and Warren, 2015;Swain and Hayhoe, 2015;Zarch et al, 2015).…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Osuch

Romanowicz

Lawrence

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Possible future climate change effects on dryness conditions in Poland are estimated for six climate projections using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The time series of precipitation represent six different climate model runs under the selected emission scenario for the period 1971–2099. Monthly precipitation values were used to estimate the SPI for multiple timescales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) for a spatial resolution of 25 km for the whole country. Trends in the SPI were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test with Sen's slope estimator for each grid cell for each climate model projection and aggregation scale, and results obtained for uncorrected precipitation and bias corrected precipitation were compared. Bias correction was achieved using a distribution-based quantile mapping (QM) method in which the climate model precipitation series were adjusted relative to gridded precipitation data for Poland. The results show that the spatial pattern of the trend depends on the climate model, the timescale considered and on the bias correction. The effect of change on the projected trend due to bias correction is small compared to the variability among climate models. We also summarize the mechanisms underlying the influence of bias correction on trends in precipitation and the SPI using a simple example of a linear bias correction procedure. In both cases, the bias correction by QM does not change the direction of changes but can change the slope of trend, and the influence of bias correction on SPI is much reduced. We also have noticed that the results for the same global climate model, driving different regional climate model, are characterized by a similar pattern of changes, although this behaviour is not seen at all timescales and seasons.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Osuch

Romanowicz

Lawrence

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Meteorological drought refers to the deviation from average conditions of meteorological parameters which causes drying of the surface. This type of drought is typically region-specific since the atmospheric conditions in different areas are highly variable in time and space (Liu et al, 2013). Hydrological drought takes place when low water supply turns evident, particularly in streams, reservoirs, and groundwater levels, usually after many months of meteorological drought (NOAA, 2020).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing short-term climate change impacts on water supply at the Wupper catchment area, Germany

Lorza-Villegas¹,

Becker

Scheibel³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The occurrence of dry periods on the Wupper catchment has increased in the last decades in conjunction with the shifting of the precipitation regime. In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper catchment area were investigated. To quantify these effects, a set of hydrological models (NASIM and SWAT) has been set-up, calibrated, and validated for the upper part of the Dhünn River catchment area – Wupper River's main tributary. This sub-catchment corresponds to one of the inflows to the Große Dhünn Reservoir (GDR), the second largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Both models were driven with climate data from decadal predictions, which have been selected instead of IPCC-RCP scenarios, as they provide a more realistic assumption of climate variability for the next 10 years. Ten decadal members based on the MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognose – medium-term climate prediction) framework have been prepared for the time span of 2015 to 2024. Additionally, a simulation with TALSIM-NG (a reservoir-oriented hydrological model) was carried out to obtain future reservoir storage. Special focus was given to identify observed trends and compare them to future trends. Past hydro-meteorological extreme dry periods were evaluated based on observed data. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were estimated for different seasons to determine if they were abnormally dry or wet. SPI, SPEI, and SRI were also calculated with decadal predictions to evaluate future extreme dry periods. Uncertainties in climate data predictions are one of the greatest challenges. Observed and forecast time series were compared by means of statistical tests in order to assess uncertainties in climate data predictions. Also, the application of two hydrological models aims to determine potential uncertainties, so that predictions are more reliable. Results indicate that SRI might be more appropriate to estimate drought periods for the study area in the frame of reservoir management – where inflow rates are of crucial importance – as this index quantifies losses in runoff formation processes. In terms of inflow rates to GDR, future changes indicate a reduction in runoff for the spring season, while an increment during winter. On the other hand, a clear change in pattern for fall and summer seasons remains uncertain. Simulations of GDR reservoir volume with different climate scenarios show that water stress by the end of 2024 is not unlikely, so sustainable adaptation measures should be further considered. Effectively managing the GDR will become consequently more complex.

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“…Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study. The calculation of the PDSI is performed as follows (Liu et al, 2013;Wells et al, 2004):…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, both the SPI and the SPEI do not account for soil moisture content that plays an important role in drought formations (Yoon et al, 2012). Thus, a more comprehensive drought index, the PDSI, based on the water balance by considering precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture (Heim, 2002; Niemeyer, 2008), has been usually used to serve as a comparison to the SPI or SPEI in drought analysis (e.g., Liu et al, 2013; Sun et al, 2018; Zhai et al, 2010; Zhao et al, 2017). Moreover, the SPI and SPEI both allow for depiction of short‐term and multi‐year droughts, while the PDSI is more effective for capturing the droughts for a given location and time, making it less flexible for the identification of different time‐scaled droughts (Zhao et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large‐scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia

Chun

Tan

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Ocean-atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short-and longterm spatial drought patterns (3-, 6, 12-and 24-months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio-temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio-temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North-South and East-West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio-temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North-South gradient in drought conditions over PeninsularMalaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East-West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East-West or North-South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short-term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer-duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio-temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management.

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Climatological Drought Analyses and Projection Using SPI and PDSI: Case Study of the Arkansas Red River Basin

Cited by 21 publications

References 6 publications

Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Assessing short-term climate change impacts on water supply at the Wupper catchment area, Germany

Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large‐scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia

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