Climatic indicators for crop infection risk: Application to climate change impacts on five major foliar fungal diseases in Northern France

Launay, Marie; Caubel, Julie; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Huard, Frédéric; Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki García de; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Brisson, Nadine

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2014.07.020

Cited by 68 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…For example, the Cfb (warm temperate, fully humid, warm summer) climate zone found primarily in western Europe and southern Australia covered 2.46% of the global land surface around 1900, 2.62% around the year 2000, and under a high emissions scenario could cover 2.54% by 2100 (143). The mechanistic approach uses ecophysiological models of varying complexity, describing organismal responses to environmental conditions that can either be determined experimentally or inferred from known distributions (75), and have been widely applied to CPPs (19,50,79,83). For example, the CLIMEX model uses 19 parameters describing growth and stress responses to temperature and moisture (75), whereas a model of fungal infection probability uses three temperature variables and one moisture variable (97).…”

Section: Improved Climate Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For plant-pathogenic fungi and oomycetes, moisture is critical to the infection process and, in particular, for foliar pathogens that require certain durations of leaf wetness in order to develop and invade the host (51,79,97). This introduces greater uncertainty into projections, first because of the greater complexity in modeling the global water cycle than in modeling temperature change (62) and second because leaf wetness duration (LWD) is not an output of observational data sets or climate models and must be inferred from temperature, humidity, and precipitation (20).…”

Section: Improved Climate Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Bebber

2015

Annu. Rev. Phytopathol.

234

177

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Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

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Section: Improved Climate Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Improved Climate Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Bebber

2015

Annu. Rev. Phytopathol.

234

177

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“…The indicator of favorable conditions for brown rot spreading that we proposed gives a value of 9 in 2014 and 0 in 2015 hence providing a rough quantification of the difference in the disease risk in the 2 years. Similar indicators are very useful as they can help in reducing fungicide treatments by concentrating them in the most critical periods or they can be used to foresee unexpected consequences of possible climate changes (Launay et al, 2014). In order to test the validity of such an indicator one would need several years of records of temperature, precipitations and brown rot prevalence in orchards not treated with fungicide.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Crop Load Affects Brown Rot Progression in Fruit Orchards: High Fruit Densities Facilitate Fruit Exposure to Spores but Reduce the Infection Rate by Decreasing Fruit Growth and Cuticle Cracking

et al. 2018

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Brown rot, triggered by Monilinia spp., causes significant economic losses in fruit crop and it is mainly controlled by chemicals with inherent environmental costs. Controlling brown rot spreading by diminishing fruit susceptibility to the disease, via sustainable cultural practices, is a promising approach. In a 2 years experiment (2014-2015) on a peach (Prunus persica) orchard, we controlled fruit growth rates by varying the fruit load. Fruit thinning practices enhanced the fruit growth and laboratory analyses showed that, in both 2014 and 2015 samples, fast growing fruits were more susceptible to infection when in contact with conidia suspension of Monilinia laxa. In the field, brown rot infection took place in 2014 and not in 2015. In 2014, trees subject to moderate thinning intensities had the highest brown rot incidence. We argue that this is due to the fact that, for null thinning, slow growing fruits are less susceptible to the infection while, for intense thinning, even if faster growing fruits are more susceptible to infection, the lower fruits density reduces per-contact probability of infection. We compared meteorological data of 2014 and 2015 and we argue that brown rot did not spread in 2015 due to an absence of favorable conditions, summarized as the number of rainy days with mean temperature between 22 and 26 • C, in the period of fruit susceptibility.

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“…The infection process of a generic airborne fungal pathogen can be simulated via two approaches: (i) the hourly time step model developed by Magarey et al (2005) as a function of air temperature and leaf wetness duration or air relative humidity (Bregaglio et al, 2012), and (ii) the daily time step model developed by Duthie (1997) and recently parameterized for five foliar pathogens by Launay et al (2014).…”

Section: Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%