Climatic forcing and primary productivity in a subalpine lake: Interannual variability as a natural experiment

Brett, Michael T.; Müller-Solger, Anke B.; Goldman, Charles R.

doi:10.4319/lo.2004.49.2.0614

Cited by 35 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…Others have observed a similar seasonal difference in response and attributed it to increased temperatures and water-column stability (Pettersson et al 2003). Chl a increased more strongly with increased TP in lakes in which monthly maximum air temperature was >∼29°C (node 6) relative to lakes in cooler climates (node 5), a trend that has been observed in other studies (Park et al 2004). …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Classifying lakes to improve precision of nutrient–chlorophyll relationships

Yuan

Pollard

2014

Freshwater Science

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Accurate and precise estimates of relationships between stressors and environmental responses can inform management decisions most usefully when models can be easily interpreted. Here, we describe an approach for classifying lakes and reservoirs that can improve estimates of the relationships between total P (TP) and chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration, while preserving a model that can be readily interpreted by environmental managers and stakeholders. We selected classification variables statistically with a classification and regression tree in which relationships between TP and chl a were the terminal nodes of the tree. We developed a set of classification trees from bootstrapped replicates of the calibration data to explore a broader range of possible trees. We chose a final tree based on its predictive performance with a validation data set. The total N ∶ TP mass ratio was the classification variable selected most frequently from a broad array of biological, chemical, and physical candidate classification variables. Relationships between TP and chl a in the resulting lake classes provided predictions that were substantially more accurate than predictions computed using nutrient ecoregions based on aggregations of Omernik Level III ecoregions, but predictions from a random forest model that averaged an ensemble of trees were even more accurate. Thus, the classification approach presented here sacrifices a small amount of predictive accuracy to retain a tree structure that is readily interpretable.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Classifying lakes to improve precision of nutrient–chlorophyll relationships

Yuan

Pollard

2014

Freshwater Science

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“…ENSO also has been found to synchronize the dynamics of several zooplankton taxa in north-temperate lakes (Rusak et al 2008). PDO and ENSO have been linked to Daphnia abundance increase in Castle Lake (Park et al 2004). In response to the positive phase of the PDO, spring breakup dates Fig.…”

Section: Large-scale Climatic Fluctuationsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Vadadi-Fülöp¹,

Sipkay

Mészáros

et al. 2012

Aquat Ecol

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Recently, major advances in the climatezooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time.

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“…Ecological effects of increased temperature on terrestrial (Forchhammer et al, 1998) and aquatic populations (Park et al, 2004;Baulch et al, 2005) have been recorded, and the ecological consequences of a warmer climate are subject to intense debate (Scheffer et al, 2001a;Aanes et al, 2002). On the one hand, it is argued that catastrophic cascading may appear because of loss or gain of certain 'key species', on the other hand others claim that ecosystems have a buffer capacity that entails a more gradual or only insignificant change to a moderate temperature increase.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Climate-enforced Temperature Increases on Freshwater Pico- and Nanoplankton Populations Studied in Artificial Ponds During 16 Months

Christoffersen¹,

Andersen²,

Søndergaard³

et al. 2006

Hydrobiologia

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Global warming scenarios foresee increases in air temperatures of 3-5°C in Northern European regions within the next 70 years. To evaluate the potential effects of global warming on shallow eutrophic lakes, a flow-through experiment combining three temperature scenarios and two nutrient levels was conducted in 24 outdoor mesocosms. Eight mesocosms were unheated and acted as controls, while sixteen were heatedeight according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate scenario A2 downscaled to regional level (2.5-4.4°C, depending on season) and eight according to scenario A2+ with an additional 50% temperature increase. Half of the mesocosms were enriched with nitrogen and phosphorus to simulate increased runoff from terrestrial sources due to the increased precipitation predicted by the A2 scenario. The other half were un-enriched and received only natural nutrient input from the groundwater that fed all the mesocosms. The abundance and development pattern of the microbial communities within the mesocosms were tracked during a 16-month period. Generally, the results showed that the abundances of picoalgae, bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates changed in a similar manner over time; abundances being lower in winter than in summer. Warming in itself had no effect on abundance, albeit it significantly modified the positive effect of the nutrients. Only at ambient temperatures did the whole microbial assemblage respond positively to nutrients. In the A2 scenario, only picoalgae responded to nutrients, while in the A2+ scenario all but the heterotrophic nanoflagellates showed a response. Elevated winter temperatures seemed not to be more important for the microbial assemblage than elevated summer temperatures. Our results demonstrate that the direct effects of warming were far less important than the nutrient effect. The results furthermore reveal that warming and nutrients in combination set off complex interactions. In consequence, global warming may possibly have pronounced effects on aquatic ecosystems if accompanied by increased nutrient loading.

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Climatic forcing and primary productivity in a subalpine lake: Interannual variability as a natural experiment

Cited by 35 publications

References 21 publications

Classifying lakes to improve precision of nutrient–chlorophyll relationships

Classifying lakes to improve precision of nutrient–chlorophyll relationships

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Implications of Climate-enforced Temperature Increases on Freshwater Pico- and Nanoplankton Populations Studied in Artificial Ponds During 16 Months

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