Climatic factors influence the spread of COVID-19 in Russia

Abstract

The study is the first attempt to assess the role of climatic predictors in the rise of COVID-19 intensity in the Russian climatic region. The study used the Random Forest algorithm to understand the underlying associations and monthly scenarios. The results show that temperature seasonality (29.2 ± 0.9%) has the highest contribution for COVID-19 transmission in the humid continental region. In comparison, the diurnal temperature range (26.8 ± 0.4%) and temperature seasonality (14.6 ± 0.8%) had the highest impacts in the sub-arctic region. Our results also show that September and October have favorable climatic conditions for the COVID-19 spread in the sub-arctic and humid continental regions, respectively. From June to August, the high favorable zone for the spread of the disease will shift towards the sub-arctic region from the humid continental region. The study suggests that the government should implement strict measures for these months to prevent the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Russia.

Independent association of meteorological characteristics with initial spread of Covid-19 in India

“…Several researchers around the world have demonstrated an inverse relationship between air temperature and number of COVID-19 cases ( Demongeot et al, 2020 ; Guo et al, 2020 ; Harmooshi et al, 2020 ; Jahangiri et al, 2020 ; Malki et al, 2020 ; Pramanik et al, 2020 ; Ran et al, 2020 ; Ren et al, 2020 ; Seligmann et al, 2020a ; Steiger et al, 2020 ). Our results are in agreement with the general understanding that higher ambient temperature can inversely influence COVID-19 transmissibility ( Guo et al, 2020 ; Jahangiri et al, 2020 ).…”

Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young

“…Prediction or early detection of second waves could be valuable for policy decisions [ 2 ] and seems more accurate than usually believed [ 3 ]. The same is true for determining climatic conditions favorable to viral spread [ 4 , 5 ]. Surprisingly, comparisons among Italian regions show that in May, temperature increased viral spread, a pattern opposite to that observed in March [ 6 ].…”

COVID-19 Influencing Factors on Transmission and Incidence Rates-Validation Analysis

“…Stated all the meteorological parameters showed positive correlation with COVID-19 cases studied in Singapore [38]. Also measured sunshine hours, besides [13,22,31,39]…”

“…Studied on temperature association and infl uence on the daily new confi rmed cases COVID-19 in diff erent cities globally specifying temperature has a major imprint on the transmission and incidence rate at city level regardless of prevailing climatic conditions. Few research studies stated factors referring to climatic, weather, meteorological factors, some of the parameters common to the three categories overlapping between them [31][32][33][34][35][36][37] where all reported diff erent meteorological parameters independently show variable degrees of association and infl uence on the COVID transmission and incidence rate [16].…”