Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa

Barrios, Salavador; Bertinelli, Luisito; Strobl, Eric

doi:10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005

Cited by 449 publications

(312 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Starting from the baseline assumption that migration can be considered a risk-coping strategy to climatic shocks, they find that in rural Tanzania a 1% reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shocks increases the probability of migration by 13 percentage points, on average, within the following year. Similar results can also be found in [57].…”

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Most of the literature discussing internal migration highlights that a reduction in precipitations may cause an increase in urban migration, for example in sub-Saharan Africa [57], or, more generally, an increase in internal migration, as in the cases of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Tanzania, respectively analyzed by [58][59][60]. As underlined by [61], the most frequent migration pattern is that occurring between rural areas.…”

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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“…The impact of climate change on migration is not well-understood either (Barrios et al 2006;Bates 2002;Kuentzel and Ramaswamy 2005;Reuveny 2007). Relationships are much more complex than in the case of energy demand, but an improved synthesis would increase our confidence in the estimates of the social cost of carbon.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analysis using fund

2013

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Abstract:We report the results of an uncertainty decomposition analysis of the social cost of carbon as estimated by FUND, a model that has a more detailed representation of the economic impact of climate change than any other model. Some of the parameters particularly influence impacts in the short run whereas other parameters are important in the long run. Some parameters are influential in some regions only. Some parameters are known reasonably well, but others are not. Ethical values, such as the pure rate of time preference and the rate of risk aversion, therefore affect not only the social cost of carbon, but also the importance of the parameters that determine its value. Some parameters, however, are consistently important: cooling energy demand, migration, climate sensitivity, and agriculture. The last two are subject to a large research effort, but the first two are not.

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“…Jónsson (2010), for example, offers a review of the environmental factor in migration dynamics across 13 case studies in the Sahel region. Barrios, Bertinelli, and Strobl (2006) also explore the influence that climatic changes might have had in shaping the pattern of urbanization in sub-Saharan countries compared to the rest of the developing world. Numerous authors have also explored more in-depth environment-migration dynamics in more restricted geographical regions, such as the work of Henry, Schoumaker, and Beauchemin (2004) and Konseiga (2006) in Burkina Faso.…”

Section: Livelihoods and Migration In The Kilimanjaro Region Of Tanzaniamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania

Smith

2014

Climate and Development

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This paper describes the conceptual and practical development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration ModelTanzania (RABMM-T). Drawing upon the literature on the process of developing and parameterizing a social simulation in the absence of spatio-temporal data, the paper outlines the translation of the conceptual framework into a working agent-based model. The possible impact of a change in local rainfall variability and mean upon household income, food production, and therefore the resilience and migration of members, is simulated to permit consideration of the possible impact of the artificial scenarios tested. In addition to the influence of changing rainfall, other non-rainfall scenarios are tested to explore the scale of the changes simulated. It is proposed that while a relatively clear impact of rainfall scenarios upon household resilience is simulated, the impact upon migration of household members is generally less clear. Furthermore, demographic and societal changes to the model are also seen to clearly contribute to the simulation outputs generated. The paper concludes that RABMM-T offers the first step in developing a potentially valuable resource for producing comparable migration forecasts that consider a range of contributory mechanisms. However, careful parameterization is required to ensure the quality and value of model outputs.

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Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 449 publications

References 22 publications

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analysis using fund

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania

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