Climatic change and quasi-oscillations in central-west Argentina summer precipitation: main features and coherent behaviour with southern African region

Compagnucci, Rosa Hilda; Agosta, Eduardo A.; Vargas, Walter M.

doi:10.1007/s003820100183

Cited by 67 publications

(98 citation statements)

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“…Indeed before 1962Indeed before , 6 years (1923Indeed before , 1925Indeed before , 1934Indeed before , 1948Indeed before , 1955Indeed before and 1961 had more than 20 wet districts (SPI>1). 1925 and 1955 were La Niña year (Compagnucci et al, 2002). After 1962, years with more than 20 wet districts increased twofold (1963, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1988, 1989, 1996 and 1997).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…If we consider years with more than 20 dry districts we can consider 1926, 1927, 1933, 1945, 1947, 1949and 1952as dry years prior to 1962. Incidentally, 1926, 1933and 1952 were El Niño years (Trenberth, 1997;Compagnucci et al, 2002). El Niño is usually linked to drought in South Africa (Van Heerden et al, 1988;Lindesay and Vogel, 1990).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…After 1962, years with more than 20 wet districts increased twofold (1963, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1988, 1989, 1996 and 1997). 1974, 1975, 1976, 1989 and 1996 were La Niña years according to Trenberth (1997) and Compagnucci et al (2002). The definition of El Niño and La Niña years is not trivial and the evolution of El Niño has varied throughout the century (Trenberth and Stepaniak;2002).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales

Rouault¹,

Richard²

2004

WSA

134

145

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The standardised precipitation index (SPI) is an index that allows monitoring the intensity and spatial extension of droughts at different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). The SPI is linked to the probability occurrence of dry or wet events. The SPI allows monitoring operationally any location with a 30-year time series. It is also used here to do a retrospective analysis of the spatial extension and intensity of droughts in South Africa since 1921. According to this index, the 8 most severe droughts at the 6-month time scale for the summer rainfall region of South Africa happened in 1926, 1933, 1945, 1949, 1952, 1970, 1983 and 1992. There is considerable decadal variability and an 18 to 20 year cycle is only found in the number of dry districts. The total number of wet and dry districts per decade seems to have increased since the 1960s. Drought lasting 3 years is not uncommon for each of the 8 South African rainfall regions defined by the South African Weather Service. Combining the retrospective analysis with real time monitoring could be extremely beneficial in the development of response, mitigation strategies and awareness plans.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales

Rouault¹,

Richard²

2004

WSA

134

145

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“…In North America, the most severe multi-year droughts of the last 150 years were the 'Civil War' drought (1856-1865, the 1870s and 1890s droughts, the infamous Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, the late 1940s-mid 1950s southwestern drought and the present-day drought that has gripped the West since 1998 (Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998;Cole et al, 2002;Fye et al, 2003;Herweijer et al, 2006;Seager et al, 2005a). In the southern part of South America, in a semi-arid area that encompasses the Andean foothills, the Sierra Cordoba and the Pampas in Argentina, along with Uruguay and southern Brazil, extended dry spells have also been noted in the 1930s and 1950s (Mechoso and Iribarren, 1992;Scian and Donnari, 1997;Robertson and Mechoso, 1998;Compagnucci et al, 2002), and inferred from tree-ring data in the 1860s and 1870s (Villalba et al, 1998). In addition, widespread drought conditions have been documented over much of central and eastern northern Europe during the 1860s and the late 1940s/early 1950s (Briffa et al, 1994) and over the European part of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) during the 1890s and 1930s (Meshcherskaya and Blazhevich, 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global footprint of persistent extra‐tropical drought in the instrumental era

Herweijer

Seager

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The major North American droughts as per instrumental records are shown to be part of a larger, global pattern of low‐frequency drought variability. Drought in western North America during the 1850s–1860s, 1870s, 1890s, 1930s and 1950s, is shown to coincide with the occurrence of prolonged dry spells in parts of Europe, southern South America and western Australia. Tropical land regions are mostly wet during these periods, with the exception of central east Africa, southern India and Sri Lanka, which are dry. The recent 1998–2003 period of drought in western North America reveals a similar global hydroclimatic ‘footprint’ with the exception of a wet southern South America and continued dry conditions in the Sahel. Common to each of the six droughts is the persistence of anomalously cool east central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For the 1998–2003 case, the warming of SSTs everywhere outside of the east central tropical Pacific may be influencing precipitation and masking the influence of persistent precipitation anomalies driven from the tropical Pacific alone. In general, examination of these major historical extra‐tropical droughts reveals a hemispherically and, in the extra‐tropics, a zonally symmetric pattern consistent with forcing from the Tropics.Ensembles of model simulations forced by observed SSTs globally (Global Ocean Global Atmosphere, GOGA) and only within the tropical Pacific (Pacific Ocean Global Atmosphere‐Mixed Layer, POGA‐ML) are both able to capture the global pattern of the persistent extra‐tropical drought regimes since the mid‐nineteenth century. This implies that the recently demonstrated link between SST forcing and drought in North America is in fact only one part of a global hydroclimatic response to the persistence of cool SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Indian Ocean SST forcing is required to capture the droughts in central east Africa. Over Europe, the modelled, low‐frequency precipitation signal is unrealistically ENSO dominated, as the model does not faithfully reproduce the observed history of low‐frequency NAO variability. Overall, our results suggest that the global pattern of persistent drought appears to be a low‐frequency version of interannual ENSO‐forced variability. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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“…The medium-frequency oscillations in annual L, described by a fifth degree polynomial, show fluctuations of around 16-26 years. Such fluctuations are observed in the rainfall over Cuyo-Argentina and neighbouring regions (Compagnucci et al 2002;Minetti et al 2004 andAgosta 2005) as well as in the humidity advection toward the continent (Vargas et al 2001). Regressions and correlations between the SOI (Troup 1965) and L for June in (a) 1901-1952 and (b) 1953-2004.…”

Section: Temporal Series and Homogeneity Analysismentioning

confidence: 92%

Latitudinal positioning of the subtropical anticyclone along the Chilean coast

Minetti¹,

Vargas²,

Poblete³

et al. 2009

AMOJ

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Climatic change and quasi-oscillations in central-west Argentina summer precipitation: main features and coherent behaviour with southern African region

Cited by 67 publications

References 0 publications

Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales

Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales

The global footprint of persistent extra‐tropical drought in the instrumental era

Latitudinal positioning of the subtropical anticyclone along the Chilean coast

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