Climatic Benefits From the 2006–2017 Avoided Deforestation in Amazonian Brazil

Abstract

Over three-fourths of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originate from land-use/cover change (LUCC). Alarming rates of forest loss in the Amazon region gained international attention in the past, but deforestation declined substantially since 2004 (although the rate has trended upwards since 2012). This result conforms to the GHG emission reduction targets set by the National Climate Change Plan, originally divided into three phases: 2006-2009; 2010-2013; and 2014-2017. According to the plan, emission reductions are measured against a deforestation baseline, initially corresponding to the average forest loss observed from 1996 to 2005 (reference period). We used an artificial neural network (ANN) model to spatialize the plan's original three-phase baseline and compare (i) the simulated carbon emissions from the baseline scenario to (ii) the emissions from observed deforestation during 2006-2017. Baseline spatialization was performed at the state level and informed by the 2000-2004 deforestation patterns in each state, resulting in nine state-specific calibrated ANNs. Simulated (baseline) and observed deforestation were compared to five biomass-density maps in order to estimate Brazil's GHG emission reductions. Our results indicate that forest loss during the study period was 62,321 km 2 lower than the baseline and associated with 1.5 ± 0.4 Pg of avoided CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Virtually all emission reductions (93%) occurred in the states of Mato Grosso (74%) and Rondônia (19%). In contrast, Roraima, Amazonas, and Amapá states increased GHG emissions by 44.8, 36.7, and 14.7 Tg CO 2 , respectively. Lastly, we discuss the issue of attribution of deforestation reductions for results-based payments (REDD+) and the emission reduction certificates issued by the Amazon Fund.

The Role of Vegetation on the Dynamics of Water and Fire in the Cerrado Ecosystems: Implications for Management and Conservation

“…In Brazil, this debate is heated by concerns about the significant rates of deforestation in the country. The deforestation of forests and savannas for the expansion of agroecosystems is the main driver of land cover changes in the Brazilian territory [ 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 ]. The conversion of natural ecosystems releases carbon to the atmosphere and affects land surface biophysical properties, including evapotranspiration, albedo (the reflectivity of the land surface), and the roughness of the vegetation, all of which influence local precipitation patterns [ 25 ].…”

Deforestation Trajectories on a Development Frontier in the Brazilian Amazon: 35 Years of Settlement Colonization, Policy and Economic Shifts, and Land Accumulation

“…All Amazonian countries followed this trend, except for Brazil. Annual deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon decreased by 80% from 2005 to 2012, associated with lower participation of large and medium landholders (Godar et al 2012) due to commodity price decreases and unfavorable currency exchange rates, policy interventions, and voluntary market agreements (Ricketts et al 2010;Nepstad et al 2014;Fearnside 2017a, b;West et al 2019). Nevertheless, by 2019 the annual deforestation rate in Brazilian Amazonia had increased by 122% since the low point in 2012 (Brazil, INPE Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 2020).…”

Simulated deforestation versus satellite data in Roraima, Northern Amazonia, Brazil

“…Non-governmental organizations at the local, national and international level are also actors that can press for deforestation control (e.g., FEARNSIDE 2017). Governments and consumers in other parts of the world also influence Brazilian policies affecting deforestation through the threat of boycotts of Brazil's agricultural exports and through contribution of funds that assist in Brazil's deforestation control efforts (e.g., WEST et al 2019). The effectiveness of these different actors is, of course, highly varied.…”