Climate Warming Trends in the U.S. Midwest Using Four Thermal Models

Abendroth, Lori; Miguez, Fernando E.; Castellano, Michael J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.

doi:10.2134/agronj2019.02.0118

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(95 reference statements)

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“…Most of the county's trending toward longer hybrid maturities were north of 42.8° latitude (Figure 2c). These northern counties are gaining thermal time considerably more rapidly than other areas (Abendroth et al, 2019). Given the heat limitations in these counties for growing maize, we expect continued lengthening to occur to maximize thermal overlap.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These time periods were specifically chosen as they may relate to hybrid choice related to spring planting and grain‐filling conditions. Heat stress was calculated based on days within the frost‐free period that had temperatures above 30°C using the heat stress degree days (HSDD) model (Abendroth et al, 2019). Precipitation and HSDD values are the mean for 2000–2017.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thermal time was summed across the frost‐free period for each county‐year using the linear GDD model with a base temperature of 10°C (Gilmore & Rogers, 1958). The methods used to establish the frost‐free period and calculate GDD within temperature boundaries of 10 and 30°C are detailed in Abendroth et al (2019). The GDD model is simple compared to other thermal models used to model maize phenology, such as crop heat units (CHU) or general thermal index (GTI; Brown & Bootsma, 1993; Dwyer et al, 1999a; Kumudini et al, 2014).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of particular interest for maize production are changes in temperature during the frost‐free period with greater warming at higher latitudes (Alfaro et al, 2006; Mueller et al, 2016; Portmann et al, 2009). Although the total amount of thermal time (a measure relating temperature to crop phenology and development) during the frost‐free period is greater, this increase is primarily due to a warmer fall followed by a warmer spring and minimal changes in the summer (Abendroth et al, 2019). The presence of the “warming hole” is expected to lessen in future years with the Midwest resembling other inter‐continental regions in magnitude of warming (Kumar et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While a longer grain fill period could arise from a change in hybrid maturity, it may also represent an extension of the functional grain fill period with no change in maturity. Plant breeders have reduced the anthesis‐silking interval and sensitivity to stress over decades of selection such that current hybrids will now flower before the tassel is fully extended and pollen shed begins (Abendroth et al, 2019; Duvick, 2005; Lee & Tollenaar, 2007). In addition, longer maintenance of green leaf area (“stay‐green”), increased post‐anthesis nitrogen uptake and retention, and tolerance or resistance to pests all contribute to maize naturally senescing by avoiding premature stress‐induced senescence (DeBruin et al, 2017; Duvick, 2005; Duvick et al, 2004; Lee & Tollenaar, 2007; Mueller et al, 2019; Thomas & Ougham, 2014; Tollenaar & Lee, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest

Abendroth

Miguez

Castellano

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Increasing temperatures in the US Midwest are projected to reduce maize yields because warmer temperatures hasten reproductive development and, as a result, shorten the grain fill period. However, there is widespread expectation that farmers will mitigate projected yield losses by planting longer season hybrids that lengthen the grain fill period. Here, we ask: (a) how current hybrid maturity length relates to thermal availability of the local climate, and (b) if farmers are shifting to longer season hybrids in response to a warming climate. To address these questions, we used county‐level Pioneer brand hybrid sales (Corteva Agriscience) across 17 years and 650 counties in 10 Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, and WI). Northern counties were shown to select hybrid maturities with growing degree day (GDD°C) requirements more closely related to the environmentally available GDD compared to central and southern counties. This measure, termed “thermal overlap,” ranged from complete 106% in northern counties to a mere 63% in southern counties. The relationship between thermal overlap and latitude was fit using split‐line regression and a breakpoint of 42.8°N was identified. Over the 17‐years, hybrid maturities shortened across the majority of the Midwest with only a minority of counties lengthening in select northern and southern areas. The annual change in maturity ranged from −5.4 to 4.1 GDD year−1 with a median of −0.9 GDD year−1. The shortening of hybrid maturity contrasts with widespread expectations of hybrid maturity aligning with magnitude of warming. Factors other than thermal availability appear to more strongly impact farmer decision‐making such as the benefit of shorter maturity hybrids on grain drying costs, direct delivery to ethanol biorefineries, field operability, labor constraints, and crop genetics availability. Prediction of hybrid choice under future climate scenarios must include climatic factors, physiological‐genetic attributes, socio‐economic, and operational constraints.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest

Abendroth

Miguez

Castellano

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Corn response to long‐term seasonal weather stressors: A review

Ortez,

Lindsey,

Thomison

et al. 2023

Crop Science

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Long‐term weather patterns (environmental conditions or stresses exceeding 10 days in length) have the potential to influence corn (Zea mays L.) growth, development, and yield. This review summarizes the current knowledge (with emphasis placed on the Midwestern U.S. production environment) on how long‐term weather conditions affect corn growth and yield, including (i) drought and heat stress, (ii) solar radiation, and (iii) distribution of heat unit accumulation during the season. Each section contains summaries of how these environmental factors influence corn growth and yield and provides context into past events experienced. The focus of the review is on dent corn grown for grain production, though relevant issues related to other types (i.e., silage corn) are included. This review also discusses agronomic recommendations or considerations to help alleviate the negative effects of stress conditions and identify areas where future research would be beneficial to continue improving the resiliency of corn cropping systems. Periods of high heat and water deficit as well as limited light availability challenge the ability to maximize yield production in corn. Temperature affects crop growth and development through the season, and accurately describing phenological progression using heat unit accumulation is a challenge. Advances in corn breeding and genetics, hybrid selection, and agronomic management practices will be key to ensuring long‐range productivity and fully leveraging possible benefits from the shifts in long‐range weather patterns.

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Severe storm damage and short‐term weather stresses on corn: A review

Lindsey,

Ortez,

Thomison

et al. 2024

Crop Science

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Adverse weather conditions from acute events (e.g., storms causing lodging, flooding, or hail) or short‐duration weather patterns (i.e., periods of cold events; extended waterlogged field conditions) can result in yield losses, though management practices may play key roles in aiding with crop recovery or avoidance of these stress events. This review summarizes current knowledge (with emphasis placed on the US Midwest) related to corn response to short‐term weather stresses of (i) cold temperature, (ii) excess water, (iii) hail/defoliation damage, and (iv) wind damage. Each section presents summaries of how corn growth and yield are affected, provides context into past events experienced, identifies agronomic or production recommendations to correct or alleviate the stress condition, and proposes areas where future research is needed. This review also highlights challenges associated with controlled simulation work on these stressors, and also identifies key areas to expand future research efforts. In general, yield losses associated with strong storms and short‐term weather events often ranged from 5% to 35%, but extreme cases could result in up to 80%–100% yield loss. Much of the literature on these topics was published prior to 1995, though it still forms the basis for modern agronomic guidance, which is problematic given the changes in agriculture in the last 20 years in management practices, available genetics and technologies, and changing environmental conditions. Revisiting these foundational studies and expanding them to examine current and future weather conditions are critical for better informing agronomic recommendations, for devising mitigation strategies, and for determining accurate yield loss expectations following these stresses.

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Climate Warming Trends in the U.S. Midwest Using Four Thermal Models

Cited by 13 publications

References 67 publications

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest

Corn response to long‐term seasonal weather stressors: A review

Severe storm damage and short‐term weather stresses on corn: A review

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