Climate velocity reveals increasing exposure of deep-ocean biodiversity to future warming

Advancing Global Ecological Modeling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems

“…Our modeling complex indirectly represents the third dimension of depth by vertically stratifying species groupings, their interactions, and the flows of energy and matter. However, the vertical use of the water column may be altered by climate change and future exploitation (Brito-Morales et al, 2020;Jorda et al, 2020;Martin et al, 2020). As new insights into these still underexplored deep-sea habitats become available, future iterations of our work may have to revisit the representation of processes that take place in the water column.…”

Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep‐sea resource extraction

“…Projected changes in climate drivers will affect deep‐seafloor populations in ways that lead to range shifts (Brito‐Morales et al., 2020), loss of suitable habitat (e.g., Morato et al., 2020), decreases in food availability and biomass (Jones et al., 2014), reduction in growth and reproduction (e.g., Hennige et al., 2015), and ultimately biodiversity decreases (e.g., Sperling, Frieder, & Levin, 2016). Warming will (a) raise metabolic rates and energy requirements, likely increasing food limitation, (b) increase oxygen requirements, threatening recovery in regions with declining oxygen through increased stratification, and/or (c) bring thermal conditions that exceed many species' tolerance ranges (Levin, 2019; Yasuhara & Danovaro, 2016).…”

“…Warming will (a) raise metabolic rates and energy requirements, likely increasing food limitation, (b) increase oxygen requirements, threatening recovery in regions with declining oxygen through increased stratification, and/or (c) bring thermal conditions that exceed many species' tolerance ranges (Levin, 2019; Yasuhara & Danovaro, 2016). Contemporary and future species range shifts resulting from deep‐water warming are expected to exceed shallow‐water shifts, even under RCP 2.6 (Brito‐Morales et al, 2020).…”

“…Further development and application of specific metrics that incorporate climate change into spatial planning is needed; these could include absolute or relative change in temperature, oxygen, food availability, and pH (e.g., Dunn, Van Dover, et al, 2018; Table S3), ToE of those variables from background natural variability (e.g., Mora et al., 2013; Table S1), local climate velocity (the distance between a current location and its future climate analog; e.g., Brito‐Morales et al., 2018, 2020), climate hazard (e.g., FAO, 2019; Table 1; Table S2), and species‐specific climate refugia (Keppel et al., 2012; Morato et al., 2020). Ongoing REMP development for the northwest Pacific Ocean and northern MAR offer an excellent opportunity to employ these metrics.…”

“…Spatial redistribution of biodiversity represents a fundamental ecological response to climate change (Brito‐Morales et al., 2018, 2020; Burrows et al., 2014; FAO, 2019). Understanding the processes contributing to species range shifts in response to climate change will critically inform the development of conservation measures, improving the likelihood of delivering the conservation objectives envisioned in their design.…”