Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan

Arshad, Muhammad Umair; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Kächele, Harald; Müller, Klaus

doi:10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0

Cited by 70 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…It is projected that climate change would reduce rain-fed maize yield by an average of 3.3-6.4% in 2030 and 5.2-12.2% in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3-8% in 2030 and 5-14% in 2050 if current varieties were grown (Tesfaye et al 2017). Despite variability in input use and crop management, there is a negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress on rice and wheat, though wheat is considerably more sensitive than rice (Arshad et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems

Aryal

Sapkota

Khurana³

et al. 2019

Environ Dev Sustain

361

156

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Agriculture in South Asia is vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, adaptation measures are required to sustain agricultural productivity, to reduce vulnerability, and to enhance the resilience of the agricultural system to climate change. There are many adaptation practices in the production systems that have been proposed and tested for minimizing the effects of climate change. Some socioeconomic and political setup contributes to adaptation, while others may inhibit it. This paper presents a systematic review of the impacts of climate change on crop production and also the major options in the agricultural sector that are available for adaptation to climate change. One of the key conclusions is that agricultural practices that help climate change adaptation in agriculture are available, while the institutional setup to implement and disseminate those technical solutions is yet to be strengthened. Thus, it is important to examine how to bring the required institutional change, generate fund to invest on these changes, and design dynamic policies for long-term climate change adaptation in agriculture rather than a mere focus on agricultural technology. This is one of the areas where South Asian climate policies require reconsidering to avoid possible maladaptation in the long run.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems

Aryal

Sapkota

Khurana³

et al. 2019

Environ Dev Sustain

361

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ineffective use of scanty water supplies and climate change are the driving factors responsible for low agricultural production and food shortage in the country [6,7]. Wheat is the staple crop; accounting for more than 50% of daily calorific intake and its availability and accessibility dictates the country's food security conditions [8]. According to the World Food Program, despite having a good wheat harvest in 2014, up to 47% of the country's population was food insecure led by respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wheat Yield Variabilities and Water Footprints Based on the Yield Sensitivity to Past Climate Conditions

et al. 2019

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This article analyzed the wheat yield variabilities and water footprints under projected future climate based on wheat yield sensitivity to past (1980–2017) trends of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), solar radiation (Rn) and rainfall (P) for the semi-arid condition of Punjab, Pakistan. The past and projected future trends of the climate variables were identical featuring prominent Tmin rise than Tmax accompanied by Rn and P declines. Based on the past influences and the projected future trends of the climate variables, Tmin was the principal driver of wheat yield decline followed by the Tmax, P and Rn. Wheat evapotranspiration and net irrigation water requirement declined due to the influence of both decrease of growing season length and Rn for the first half of 21st-century, and this trend reversed during the second half of 21st-century. These phenomena were caused by different degree of climate warming between the two-time slices. Due to future wheat yield decline and a gradual rise in green water scarcity the blue and grey water footprints rise consistently particularly during 2nd-time slices. CO2 enrichment showed limited mitigation potential of nullifying the warming-induced threats on future wheat yield and water footprints.

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“…For both major crops in the study area, i.e., rice and wheat, the relative yield showed a declining yield pattern for both crop models, APSIM and DSSAT, considering all five GCMs [60]. The rice crop is more influenced by climatic changes as compared to wheat due to its vulnerability to rising temperature and lack of water supply as per the needed quantity, as the rising temperature and the growing concentrations of carbon provide a buffer for the wheat [47].…”

Section: Relative Yields Of Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The socio-economic conditions of smallholder farmers are prone to environmental and some other non-climatic threats to agriculture. Several studies were carried out to measure the climate impact threats on the integrated rice-wheat cropping zone in Pakistan, which showed that climate change has adverse effects on both crops' productivity [8,47,60]. Climate change impact assessment needs to be investigated in all agro-ecological areas, and there is a need for future adaptations to national climatic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan

Anser

Hina

Hameed

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province's rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC's net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.

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Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan

Cited by 70 publications

References 41 publications

Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems

Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems

Future Wheat Yield Variabilities and Water Footprints Based on the Yield Sensitivity to Past Climate Conditions

Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan

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