Climate variability and trends in climate extremes in the priority conservation area El Tokio and adjacent areas in northeastern Mexico

Baez-González, Alma Delia; Torres-Meza, Maria de Jesus; Royo-Márquez, Mario Humberto; Kiniry, James R.

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.001

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Topography and geographic features such as large water bodies and extensive rivers, forests and savannas, deserts, valleys and mountains, among other types of landscape and land-cover, can create remarkable spatial gradients in rainfall that are difficult to resolve with the existing network of gauged observations. While the spatial coverage of rain gauges is far from ideal on a global scale, these datasets have been used in numerous recent climate and environmental studies over the Americas (Baez-Gonzalez, Meza, & Kiniry, 2018;Boisier, Rondanelli, Garreaud, & Muñoz, 2016;Haylock et al, 2006;Heidinger et al, 2018;Kunkel, 2003;Kunkel et al, 2013;Kunkel, Andsager, & Easterling, 1999;Marengo, 2009;Marengo & Espinoza, 2016;Peterson et al, 2013;Silva Dias et al, 2013;Zilli, Carvalho, Liebmann, & Silva Dias, 2017).…”

Section: Challenges In Evaluating Precipitation Trends In the Americasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review

Carvalho

2019

WIREs Climate Change

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North, Central, and South America (collectively referred to as the Americas) extend across two hemispheres, and together cover approximately 28% of Earth's land area and are home to about 13% of the world's population. Unique ecosystems, diversified cultures, and communities that inhabit the region rely on precipitation delivered yearly by multiple systems, including mid-latitudes storms, the North and South American Monsoons, and tropical storms and hurricanes. The rapid warming of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans combined with internal variability of the climate system, have modified precipitation patterns from the tropics to high latitudes.In the Americas, instrumental records have shown evidence of upward trends in extreme precipitation (amount, intensity, and frequency) in many areas. The most consistent evidence of precipitation trends occurs in mid-latitudes of North America and in the subtropics of South America. Recent studies have indicated a poleward shift of heavy precipitation associated with South American Monsoon.Nonetheless, the deficient network of rain gauges in vast areas over tropical Americas limits the assessment of trends in regions with heavy rainfall amounts. Additionally, observed trends in the North America monsoon precipitation are difficult to separate from the contribution of tropical storms and hurricanes. Furthermore, coupled modes such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulate precipitation in the Americas, from the tropics to the extratropics, and these teleconnections are relevant to assess precipitation trends using historical records. This review evaluates all these complex issues focusing on observations based on instrumental datasets.

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Section: Challenges In Evaluating Precipitation Trends In the Americasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review

Carvalho

2019

WIREs Climate Change

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“…Os índices de extremos foram calculados usando o software RClimDex (Zhang et al, 2004). Nos índices, foram observados parâmetros estatísticos como a tendência linear calculada pelo método dos mínimos quadrados e o nível de significância estatística das tendências, estimado pelo teste t-student (valor-p) (Baez-Gonzaleza et al, 2018). Esses resultados foram discutidos para três subperíodos de 30 anos entre 1928 e 2017, e para o período total de 90 anos dos dados.…”

Section: Methodsunclassified

Tendências em índices extremos de precipitação em Cabaceiras (PB) para períodos distintos

Costa

Gomes

Silva

et al. 2020

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Este trabalho teve como objetivo aplicar e estudar 11 índices de extremos de precipitação formulados pelo ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), para a cidade de Cabaceiras-PB, utilizando dados diários de precipitação contínuos de 90 anos. Os índices foram calculados para o comprimento total da série, 1928 a 2017, assim como para três segmentos de 30 anos (1928-1957, 1958-1987 e 1988-2017). Os resultados evidenciaram que para muitos índices, tendências opostas e estatisticamente significativas podem ser observadas a depender do subperíodo estudado, assim como haver diferença entre estas tendências e as obtidas ao analisar-se o período total dos dados. Exemplos disso aconteceram para os índices R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, CWD e PRCPTOT. Trends in extreme precipitation indexes in Cabaceiras (PB) for different periods A B S T R A C TThis work aimed to apply and analyze 11 precipitation extremes indexes formulated by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), for the city of Cabaceiras, located in the Borborema mesoregion and microregion of Paraíba Oriental Cariri. A municipality in the semiarid region, it has the title of municipality where it rains less in Brazil, with an annual average of just over 300mm. Daily 90-year continuous precipitation data were used for the extreme indices, with the time series analyzed for four distinct periods, the total length of the series, 1928 to 2017, as well as three 30-year segments (1928-1957, 1958- 1987 and 1988-2017). The results showed that for many indices, opposite and significant trends can be observed depending on the sub period studied, as well as differences between these trends and those obtained by analyzing the total data period. The R1, R10 and R20mm indices show significant negative trends in the 1928-1957 sub period, but positive in the following two sub periods, reflecting a significant positive trend in the total period from 1928 to 2017. Other interesting examples are CDD indices for consecutive dry days, and PRCPTOT, for total annual rainfall with rainfall greater than 1mm. The CDD showed significant positive trend only in the 1928-1957 sub period, but non-significant negative trends in the subsequent sub periods, reflecting non-significant negative trends in the total length of the series. The PRCPTOT index shows behavior opposite to the CDD index, with a significant negative trend in the 1928-1957 sub period, positive in 1958-1987 and negative again in 1988-2017, but for the total length of the series the trend is positive and significant. These results show that the analysis of extreme trends is noticeably sensitive to the sample of the analyzed period, and may not reflect the reality of the time series the longer the total length of the time series, and need to be used with caution.Keywords: climate variability, dry and wet periods, semiarid.

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“…These grasslands are today highly fragmented due to anthropogenic activities related to livestock and agriculture (Estrada-Castillón et al 2010), but contain the last remaining colonies of C. mexicanus, a prairie dog species endemic to Mexico. The climate of El Tokio is semi-arid with mean annual temperatures between 16 and 18 °C, a mean temperature of the driest quarter (January-March) of 13.9 °C and a mean temperature of the wettest quarter (July to September) of 19.5 °C (Baez-Gonzalez et al 2018). Precipitation ranges from 300 to 600 mm, with an average monthly precipitation of the driest quarter at 14.0 mm (January-March), here considered as the dry season, and an average monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter being 60 mm (July-September), here considered as wet season, (Baez-Gonzalez et al 2018).…”

Section: Study Area and Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate of El Tokio is semi-arid with mean annual temperatures between 16 and 18 °C, a mean temperature of the driest quarter (January-March) of 13.9 °C and a mean temperature of the wettest quarter (July to September) of 19.5 °C (Baez-Gonzalez et al 2018). Precipitation ranges from 300 to 600 mm, with an average monthly precipitation of the driest quarter at 14.0 mm (January-March), here considered as the dry season, and an average monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter being 60 mm (July-September), here considered as wet season, (Baez-Gonzalez et al 2018). Altitude ranges from 1,550 to 1,800 m asl., and the area has at least 5 different soil types, mostly gypsum and xerosol soils with low calcium carbonate content and a loamysilt texture, followed by loamy-clayey soils and loamy-sandy soils (Pando-Moreno, 2013).…”

Section: Study Area and Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is most likely due to prairie dogs feeding on graminoids after the wet season, which reduces the grass cover that could remain in the dry season but allows to maintain an overall stable graminoid cover throughout the year (Mellado et al 2005). However, due to the nature of drylands to have variable precipitation (D'Odorico & Battachan, 2012), further long-term studies are needed to monitor these interactions, especially in light of future climate change projections for the area, which predict an increase in rainfall variability (Baez-Gonzalez et al 2018). Likewise, although our results show interactions between seasonality and disturbance, these effects only show short-term trends.…”

Section: ) Seasonal Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Grassland type and seasonal effects have a bigger influence on plant diversity than prairie dog disturbances in semi-arid grasslands

Rodriguez-Barrera

Kühn

Castillón

et al. 2022

Preprint

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1. Prairie dogs (Cynomys sp.) are considered keystone species and ecosystem engineers for their grazing and burrowing activities (summarized here as disturbances). As climate changes and its variability increases, the mechanisms underlying organisms’ interactions with their habitat will likely shift. Understanding the mediating role of prairie dog disturbance on vegetation structure, and its interaction with environmental conditions through time, will increase knowledge on the risks and vulnerability of grasslands. 2. Here, we compared how plant taxonomic and functional diversity metrics, along with community-weighted trait means (CWM), respond to prairie dog disturbance across grassland types and seasons in a conservation priority, semiarid grassland of Northeast Mexico. 3. Our findings suggest that functional metrics and CWM analyses responded to interactions between prairie dog disturbance, grassland type and season, whilst species diversity and cover measures were less sensitive to the role of prairie dog disturbance. Contrary to previous studies, we found weak evidence that prairie dog disturbance has a negative effect on vegetation structure, except for minimal effects on C4 and graminoid cover, which depend mainly on season. Grassland type and season explained most of the effects on plant functional and taxonomic diversity as well as CWM traits. Furthermore, we found that leaf area as well as forb and annual cover increased during the wet season, independent of prairie dog disturbance. 4. Our results provide evidence that prairie dog disturbance is less important than grassland type and that environmental effects have a stronger role than grazing and animal disturbances on vegetation. We argue that a focus on disturbance and grazing effects is misleading, and instead attention is needed on the relationships between vegetation and environmental conditions which will be critical to understand semi-arid grassland dynamics in the region. In addition, explicit management strategies to mitigate climate change would need to consider these relationships

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Climate variability and trends in climate extremes in the priority conservation area El Tokio and adjacent areas in northeastern Mexico

Cited by 10 publications

References 25 publications

Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review

Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review

Tendências em índices extremos de precipitação em Cabaceiras (PB) para períodos distintos

Grassland type and seasonal effects have a bigger influence on plant diversity than prairie dog disturbances in semi-arid grasslands

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