Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe

Abstract

Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management.

The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

“…Mapping of vulnerabilities to infectious diseases [10] and an assessment of the vulnerability to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change [82] have been undertaken. When researchers studied 2058 outbreaks of 114 infectious diseases occurring in 36 European countries from 1950 to 2009, they found that climatic variations and seasonal changes in the condition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (teleconnection pattern of air pressure leading to warmer/cooler temperatures) influenced the outbreak occurrences of 11 diseases, transmitted through air, water, food, vectors, and rodents [83]. The change in occurrence of infectious diseases in Europe is particularly evident for those transmitted by vectors such as mosquitos, sand flies, and ticks or rodent-borne diseases, and for foodborne diseases as summarized below.…”

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system

“…The former study reported multiple climate factors, including solar radiation, air temperature, seas surface temperature, mean radiant temperature, physiologically equivalent temperature and universal thermal climate index 1 to be positively associated with the occurrence of measles, while relative humidity and rainfall were inversely associated with the occurrence [56]. The latter study found that measles outbreaks were associated with winter positive phases of NAO index in northern Europe and with positive values of summer NAO in Europe [26]. Positive and negative NAO represent pressure abnormalities and temperature and precipitation changes extending from eastern North America to western and central Europe.…”

“…The effects of climatic conditions on common VPID are summarized in TABLE 1. A recent study suggested climate variability influenced the occurrence of all types of infectious diseases such as air-, water-, vector-and food-borne diseases [26]. UVR exposure may affect immune response to vaccination or reinfection [27].…”

“…One of these studies focused on the impact of specific climate factors [56] and the other on climate variability using the Northern Antarctic Oscillation (NAO) index [26]. The former study reported multiple climate factors, including solar radiation, air temperature, seas surface temperature, mean radiant temperature, physiologically equivalent temperature and universal thermal climate index 1 to be positively associated with the occurrence of measles, while relative humidity and rainfall were inversely associated with the occurrence [56].…”

“…Strong positive phases are associated with above-average temperatures and precipitation across northern and southern Europe; above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation over Mediterranean countries. During negative phases, the opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation abnormalities occurs [26].…”