Climate Variability and Extreme Events Occurrence in Petrolina-Pe Municipality

Abstract

The Brazilian semi-arid features high climate variability, both spatial and temporal, and it constitutes one of the most vulnerable regions to possible changes in climate. The occurrence of droughts in the region has historically caused economic losses in agriculture and consequently on their local population’s well-being. This paper aims to analyze climate variability and extreme events in Petrolina municipality, in the State of Pernambuco and in the low middle São Francisco’s development region. We used a Petrolina rainfall station data, selected at 1915 to 2014. Mann-Kendall trend test and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), respectively, were applied for analysis of climate variability and extreme events. The results point to an increasing trend in precipitation, with statistical significance. This increase has occurred mainly since the 1960s, with the occurrence of the rainiest years from this year on. Meanwhile, the RAI revealed the occurrence of considered 19 years as very dry and two years classified as extremely rainy, highlighting the year 1985, which recorded the highest rainfall in the series (1059 mm).