Climate Trends on the Highest Peak of the Northeast: Mount Washington, NH

Murray, Georgia; Colgan, Anne M.; Nelson, Sarah J.; Kelsey, Eric P.; Kimball, Kenneth D.

doi:10.1656/045.028.s1105

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Our results demonstrate that within these northeastern forests, nest survival of passerine birds is negatively influenced by abiotic factors (i.e., intense rain bouts and minimum and average daily temperature) and nests have a lower probability of surviving later in the breeding season. These findings suggest important implications for montane breeding birds as warmer temperatures and more frequent precipitation events are likely to occur due to climate change (Murray et al, 2021;Westra et al, 2014), both factors that have been documented to effect species' populations in this region (Duclos et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Evidence within the White Mountains overwhelmingly signals that the climate is changing, leading to more frequent precipitation events in the future (IPCC, 2014;Murray et al, 2021;Wason et al, 2017). Duclos et al (2019) found that Swainson's thrush populations were directly affected by precipitation, and indirectly influenced by changing vegetation composition due to warming temperatures, though they were uncertain what underlying mechanisms were driving these relationships.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Montane bird species that breed within high elevation forests are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to the narrow elevational ranges they inhabit (Scridel et al, 2018), making them susceptible to extirpation (Sekercioglu et al, 2008) if their elevational ranges are compressed due to climate change and anthropogenic land uses (Rodenhouse et al, 2008). Research within northeastern forests of the United States confirms that the average temperature within this system has increased over the last several decades (Murray et al, 2021;Wason et al, 2017), which is likely causing recently documented downslope shifts in montane birds (DeLuca & King, 2017) and high-elevation vegetation (Foster & D'Amato, 2015;Wason et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient

Deckel

DeLuca

Gerson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Montane birds experience a range of challenges that may limit their breeding success, including nest predation and severe climactic conditions. The continuing effects of climate change are causing shifts in biotic and abiotic factors that may compound these threats to montane bird species. In northeastern montane forests, many bird species are shifting downslope, potentially as the result of increased precipitation and temperature at higher elevations. Although lower elevations might be more favorable in terms of climactic conditions, nest predation is higher at lower elevations. Thus, montane birds might be faced with the opposing pressures of adverse climactic conditions at higher elevations and increased predation at lower elevations. We monitored nests of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevation gradient in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire in 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 to examine the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nest survival. We found a significant negative effect of rain intensity (millimeters per hour per day) on daily nest survival, suggesting that heavier rain per hour decreases Swainson’s thrush daily daily nest survival. Moreover, we found a negative interaction effect of elevation in conjunction with minimum daily temperature and average daily temperature, suggesting that at higher elevations, temperature, specifically on colder days, decreases Swainson’s thrush nest survival. Our results provide evidence for a potential mechanism of how climate change will affect nesting survival of montane breeding birds as heavier precipitation events become more frequent and intense, a likely outcome due to the changing climate within the White Mountains and other montane ecosystems, putting other passerine species at risk in this system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient

Deckel

DeLuca

Gerson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…From Southern Appalachian grassy balds, to the alpine zones of the Northeast, the AT is also home to diverse flora that may be influenced by climate change. Higher latitudes in the Appalachians are warming and experiencing longer growing seasons but elevational differences are mixed (Kimball et al, 2014; Janowiak et al, 2018; Murray et al 2021). While data from many other global montane sites have demonstrated elevation-dependent warming (Pepin et al 2022) this has not been the consistent pattern in the northern Appalachians (Murray et al 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distinct latitudinal patterns of shifting spring phenology across the Appalachian Trail Corridor

Tourville,

Murray,

Nelson

2023

Preprint

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Warming associated with climate change will likely continue to advance the onset of spring phenology for many forest plants across the eastern United States. Understory forbs and spring ephemerals which fix a disproportionate amount of carbon during spring may be negatively affected by earlier canopy closure (i.e., phenological windows), however, information on the spatial patterns of phenological change for these communities is still lacking. To assess the potential for changes in spring phenological windows we synthesized observations from the Appalachian Mountain Club’s (AMC) Mountain Watch (MW) project, the National Phenology Network (NPN), and AMC’s iNaturalist projects between 2004 and 2022 (n = 118,250) across the length of the Appalachian Trail (AT) Corridor (34°N-46°N latitude). We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to examine the sensitivity of day of year of flowering and leaf-out for 11 understory species and 14 canopy tree species to mean spring temperature (April-June). We conducted analyses across the AT Corridor, partitioned by regions of 4° latitude (South, Mid-Atlantic, and North). Spring phenologies for both understory plants and canopy trees advanced with warming (∼6 days/°C and ∼3 days/°C, respectively). However, sensitivity of each group varied by latitude, with phenology of trees and understory plants advancing to a greater degree in the mid-Atlantic region (∼10 days/°C) than the southern or northern regions (∼5 days/°C). While we find evidence that phenological windows remain stable in southern and mid-Atlantic portions of the AT, we observed an expansion of the spring phenological window in the north where there was greater understory temperature sensitivity compared to trees (∼1.6 days/°C). Our analyses indicate differential sensitivity of forest plant phenology to potential warming across a large latitudinal gradient in the eastern United States. Further, evidence for a temperature-driven expansion of the spring phenological window suggests a potential beneficial effect for understory plants, although phenological mismatch with potential pollinators is possible. Using various extensive citizen-science derived datasets allows us to synthesize regional- and continental-scale data to explore spatial and temporal trends in spring phenology related to warming. Such data can help to standardize approaches in phenological research and its application to forest climate resiliency.

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“…]), rocky spodosol soils, continental forest climate with warm summers and cold and snowy winters (mean annual temperatures between 3°C and 11°C; mean length of the frost-free period ~100 days; mean annual snowfall >2550 mm), and evenly distributed precipitation (annual mean precipitation of 890 mm) (Janowiak et al, 2018). The mean annual temperature has increased by ~1°C since the 1930s in the White Mountains, and by ~1.8°C since the 1890s across the state of Maine (MCC STS, 2020; Murray et al, 2021). Upland forests in the region grade from broadleaf deciduous forests at the lowest elevations, to spruce-fir dominated forests at higher elevations, and ultimately to open alpine communities on the highest peaks.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Forests on the move: Tracking climate‐related treeline changes in mountains of the northeastern United States

Tourville,

Publicover,

Dovciak

2023

Journal of Biogeography

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AimAlpine treeline ecotones are influenced by environmental drivers and are anticipated to shift their locations in response to changing climate. Our goal was to determine the extent of recent climate‐induced treeline advance in the northeastern United States, and we hypothesized that treelines have advanced upslope in complex ways depending on treeline structure and environmental conditions.LocationWhite Mountain National Forest (New Hampshire) and Baxter State Park (Maine), USA.TaxonHigh‐elevation tree species—Abies balsamea, Picea mariana and Betula cordata.MethodsWe compared current and historical high‐resolution aerial imagery to quantify the advance of treelines over the last four decades, and link treeline changes to treeline form (demography) and environmental drivers. Spatial analyses of the aerial images were coupled with ground surveys of forest vegetation and topographical features to ground‐truth treeline classification and provide information on treeline demography and additional potential drivers of treeline locations. We used multiple linear regression models to examine the importance of both topographic and climatic variables on treeline advance.ResultsRegional treelines have significantly shifted upslope over the past several decades (on average by 3 m/decade). Gradual diffuse treelines (characterized by declining tree density) showed significantly greater upslope shifts (5 m/decade) compared to other treeline forms, suggesting that both climate warming and treeline demography are important correlates of treeline shifts. Topographical features (slope, aspect) as well as climate (accumulated growing degree days, AGDD) explained significant variation in the magnitude of treeline advance (R2 = 0.32).Main ConclusionsThe observed advance of treelines is consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming induces upslope treeline shifts. Overall, our findings suggest that gradual diffuse treelines at high elevations may be indicative of climate warming more than other alpine treeline ecotones and thus they can inform us about past and ongoing climatic changes.

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Climate Trends on the Highest Peak of the Northeast: Mount Washington, NH

Cited by 10 publications

References 38 publications

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient

Distinct latitudinal patterns of shifting spring phenology across the Appalachian Trail Corridor

Forests on the move: Tracking climate‐related treeline changes in mountains of the northeastern United States

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