Climate trends in a seasonal forecasting system

Boer, G. J.

doi:10.3137/ao1002.2009

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Fereday et al , 2008), though significance remains low. Climate warming has clearly become an important predictive factor in both JF and DJF, an important result for European winter temperature forecasting that agrees with the results of Liniger et al (2007) and Boer (2009).…”

Section: Results–north European Winter Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 87%

How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?

Folland

Scaife

Lindesay

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change.We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5°× 5°grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere.

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Section: Results–north European Winter Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 87%

How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?

Folland

Scaife

Lindesay

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…A more general correction is obtained by replacing the modelled long‐term trend in with the observed trend for each l , i.e.,

{true \overset{true˜}{Y}}_{italicjl} = Y_{italicjl} - Δ L_{italicjl},

where the tilde denotes a trend‐corrected forecast, and the linear trend correction Δ L jl depends on both lead time l and the initial year j and is given by

\begin{matrix} normalΔ L_{jl} \equiv L_{jl}^{y} - L_{jl}^{x} = ((), μ_{l}^{y} + s_{l}^{y} j^{'}) - ((), μ_{l}^{x} + s_{l}^{x} j^{'}) \\ = B_{l} + normalΔ S_{jl} . \end{matrix}

The slope coefficients s l y and s l x in the slope correction term Δ S jl are determined for each lead time l by the standard least squares method. Similar trend‐adjusting techniques are used by Boer [2009] for seasonal forecasts and in Fyfe et al [2011] for decadal predictions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The slope coefficients s l y and s l x in the slope correction term DS jl are determined for each lead time l by the standard least squares method. Similar trend-adjusting techniques are used by Boer [2009] for seasonal forecasts and in Fyfe et al [2011] for decadal predictions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate

Kharin¹,

Boer²,

Merryfield³

et al. 2012

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

104

102

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[1] A method for post-processing decadal predictions from global climate models that accounts for model deficiencies in representing climate trends is proposed and applied to decadal predictions of annual global mean temperature from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis climate model. The method, which provides a time-dependent trend adjustment, reduces residual drifts that remain after applying the standard time-independent bias correction when the modelled and observed long-term trends differ. Initialized predictions and uninitialized simulations that share common specified external forcing are analyzed. Trend adjustment substantially reduces forecast errors in both cases and initialization further enhances skill, particularly for the first forecast year.

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“…155 The effect could be appreciated as quickly as a few weeks into the forecast. Other authors 156 suggested that those systems without representation of the anthropogenic forcing could instead use an a posteriori correction to increase the skill. As a consequence, the most recent versions of operational seasonal forecast systems 1,157 include realistic estimates of the anthropogenic forcing in the simulations.…”

Section: Forecast Quality Of Current Dynamical Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects

Doblas‐Reyes

Garcı́a-Serrano

Lienert

et al. 2013

WIREs Climate Change

333

301

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Seasonal climate forecasts occupy an intermediate zone between weather forecasting and climate projections. They share with the numerical weather prediction the difficulty of initializing the simulations with a realistic state of the atmosphere and the need to periodically verify different aspects of their quality, while additionally are burdened by uncertainties in feedback processes that also play a central role in constraining climate projections. Seasonal predictions have to deal also with the challenge of initializing all the components of the climate system (ocean, sea ice, and land surface). The value of skilful seasonal forecasts is obvious for many societal sectors and is currently being included in the framework of developing climate services. Seasonal forecasts will in addition be valuable by increasing the acceptance of climate projections among the general public. This advanced‐review article presents an overview of the state‐of‐the‐art in global seasonal predictability and forecasting for climate researchers and discusses fundamental advances to increase forecast quality in the near future. The article concludes with a list of challenges where seasonal forecasting is expected to focus on in the near future. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:245–268. doi: 10.1002/wcc.217 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making

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Climate trends in a seasonal forecasting system

Cited by 14 publications

References 22 publications

How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?

How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?

Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate

Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects

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