Climate Suitability Analysis of Robusta Coffee and Its Projections in South Sumatera Province

Abstract

Climate suitability will support the growth of a plant such as Robusta coffee. This study aims to analyze the suitability of the Robusta coffee plant climate and its projection in South Sumatra. Climate suitability is assessed based on the weighting of air temperature, rainfall, number of dry months, altitude, soil texture, and slopes. This study used observation data on rainfall and air temperature at 48 rain post points in the Robusta coffee farming area. The projection uses scenarios shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5 of the MIROC6 model with three projection periods of 2021-2030, 2031-2040, and 2041-2050. The results showed that baseline period 35% of the area as a very suitable class and 65% in fairly suitable class. Based on the projected results of scenario SSP2-4.5 period 1 to 3 have the same percentage of area, that is 91% in very suitable class and 9% in fairly suitable class. The projected results of the scenario SSP5-8.5 show an improvement but not better than scenario SSP2-4.5. The percentage of area very suitable class for periods 1 to 3 of 89%, 50%, and 85% respectively. Keywords: Climate suitability, Projection, Robusta coffee, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5.