Climate Stabilization: For Better or for Worse?

Kellogg, William W.; Schneider, Stephen H.

doi:10.1126/science.186.4170.1163

Cited by 116 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Thus, Dickinson (1996) said "As global greenhouse warming continues to intensify, it is likely that demands to employ technologies of climate engineering will become increasingly insistent." Similarly, people in those regions or nations who feel most threatened by the environmental problem will be most willing to use technological intervention (Kellogg and Schneider, 1974;Cicerone et. al., 1992).…”

Section: Geoengineering -Past Ideas and Their Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geoengineering: Encouraging Research and Overseeing Implementation

Cicerone

2006

Climatic Change

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Ideas on how to engineer Earth's climate, or to modify the environment on large scales to counter human impacts, do not enjoy broad support from scientists. Refereed publications that deal with such ideas are not numerous nor are they cited widely. Paul Crutzen (2006) analyzes the idea of intentionally injecting sulfur into the stratosphere, to enhance the albedo of Earth, so as to slow the warming of the planet due to greenhouse gases. He notes that such an intervention might become necessary unless the world becomes more successful in limiting greenhouse gas emissions and/or if global warming should proceed faster than currently anticipated partly due to cleaning the lower atmosphere of sulfur pollution (Andreae et al., 2005;Charlson et al., 1991).I am aware that various individuals have opposed the publication of Crutzen's paper, even after peer review and revisions, for various and sincere reasons that are not wholly scientific. Here, I write in support of his call for research on geoengineering and propose a framework for future progress in which supporting and opposing viewpoints can be heard and incorporated. I also propose that research on geoengineering be considered separately from actual implementation, and I suggest a path in that direction.

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Section: Geoengineering -Past Ideas and Their Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geoengineering: Encouraging Research and Overseeing Implementation

Cicerone

2006

Climatic Change

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“…Thus, it is quite possible that the unintentional change might be overestimated by computer models and the intentional change underestimated, in which case human intervention would be a "cure worse than the disease" (61). Furthermore, the prospect for international tensions resulting from any deliberate environmental modifications is staggering, and our legal instruments to deal with these tensions is immature (62). Thus, acceptance of any substantial climate countermeasure strategies for the foreseeable future is hard to imagine, particularly because there are other more viable alternatives.…”

Section: Scientific Issues Surrounding the Greenhouse Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Greenhouse Effect: Science and Policy

Schneider

1989

Science

538

130

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Global warming from the increase in greenhouse gases has become a major scientific and political issue during the past decade. That infrared radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases and particles in a planetary atmosphere and that the atmospheric CO2 level has increased by some 25 percent since 1850 because of fossil fuel combustion and land use (largely deforestation) are not controversial; levels of other trace greenhouse gases such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons have increased by even larger factors. Estimates of present and future effects, however, have significant uncertainties. There have also recently been controversial claims that a global warming signal has been detected. Results from most recent climatic models suggest that global average surface temperatures will increase by some 2deg. to 6deg.C during the next century, but future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and feedback processes not properly accounted for in the models could produce greater or smaller increases. Sea level rises of 0.5 to 1.5 meters are typically projected for the next century, but there is a small probability of greater or even negative change. Forecasts of the distribution of variables such as soil moisture or precipitation pattern have even greater uncertainties. Policy responses range from engineering countermeasures to passive adaptation to prevention and a "law of the atmosphere." One approach is to implement those policies now that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and have additional societal benefits. Whether the uncertainties are large enough to suggest delaying policy responses is not a scientific question per se, but a value judgment.

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“…As has happened after large volcanic eruptions, stratospheric aerosols could cool the Earth's surface by reducing the solar radiation reaching the lower atmosphere. This and other proposals for deliberate climate modifications (Marchetti 1977) raised serious concerns that our knowledge about the response of weather patterns to geoengineering is not yet adequate and that a forecast of long-term climate change with some "acceptable insurance" should be produced before any largescale climate modification scheme comes into operation (Kellogg and Schneider 1974). Schneider (1996Schneider ( , 2001) warned about unexpected surprises in regional climate responses and pointed out the high probability that climate control would collapse on the centennial time scale necessary for the removal of anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure

et al. 2008

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We use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO 2 -induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO 2 -induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Keeping global warming below 2 • C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO 2 forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO 2 in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO 2 was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5 • C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure.V. Brovkin (B) · M. Claussen

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Climate Stabilization: For Better or for Worse?

Abstract: The world's climates have changed many times in the past, often with quite dramatic results, and they are changing today. We see the evidence in long-term trends in mean temperature, precipitation, variation of sea ice, and so forth. Furthermore, we experience

Cited by 116 publications

References 30 publications

Geoengineering: Encouraging Research and Overseeing Implementation

Geoengineering: Encouraging Research and Overseeing Implementation

The Greenhouse Effect: Science and Policy

Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure

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