Climate Shocks and (Very) Long-Run Productivity

Dalgaard, Carl‐Johan; Hansen, Casper Worm; Kaarsen, Nicolai

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2665151

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…There is also mounting evidence that weather and climate have important effects on societies. For example, a number of studies now show that cooling during the Little Ice Age resulted in worse health outcomes, social unrest, increased conflict, decreased productivity, and slower economic growth (e.g., Baten, 2002, Oster, 2004, Waldinger, 2015, Dalgaard et al, 2015, Iyigun et al, 2017. There is evidence that increased seasonal variability in certain locations resulted in the Neolithic transition, one of the most important social changes in human history (Matranga, 2016).…”

Section: Data: Sources and Their Construction A Motivating The Measumentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Giuliano

Nunn

2020

The Review of Economic Studies

174

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We examine a determinant of cultural persistence that has emerged from a class of models in evolutionary anthropology: the similarity of the environment across generations. Within these models, when the environment is more stable across generations, the traits that have evolved up to the previous generation are more likely to be suitable for the current generation. In equilibrium, a greater value is placed on tradition and there is greater cultural persistence. We test this hypothesis by measuring the variability of climatic measures across 20-year generations from 500–1900CE. Employing a variety of tests that use different samples and empirical strategies, we find that populations with ancestors who lived in environments with more cross-generational instability place less importance on maintaining tradition today and exhibit less cultural persistence.

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Section: Data: Sources and Their Construction A Motivating The Measumentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Giuliano

Nunn

2020

The Review of Economic Studies

174

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“…This climate event probably affected farming practices and crops, causing economic crises (e.g. Le Roy Ladurie, 2006;Dalgaard et al, 2015). The combined effect of climate and land use on vegetation demonstrates the existence of early feedback loops between climate, land use and vegetation and this becomes stronger over the last millennia towards the present.…”

Section: Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

Marquer

Gaillard

Sugita

et al. 2017

Quaternary Science Reviews

109

119

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Human impact Land use LPJ-GUESS Europe Pollen REVEALS Vegetation composition based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change.

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“…There is also evidence that weather and climate have important effects on societies. It has been shown that cooling during the Little Ice Age resulted in worse health outcomes, social unrest, increased conflict, decreased productivity, and slower economic growth (Baten, 2002, Oster, 2004, Waldinger, 2015, Dalgaard, Hansen and Kaarsen, 2015, Iyigun, Nunn and Qian, 2017. Matranga (2016) argues that increased seasonal variability in certain locations resulted in the Neolithic transition, one of the most important social changes in human history.…”

Section: A Motivating the Measure Of Environmental Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Giuliano

Nunn

2017

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change july 2017Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world's largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change * When does culture persist and when does it change? We examine a determinant that has been put forth in the anthropology literature: the variability of the environment from one generation to the next. A prediction, which emerges from a class of existing models from evolutionary anthropology, is that following the customs of the previous generation is relatively more beneficial in stable environments where the culture that has evolved up to the previous generation is more likely to be relevant for the subsequent generation. We test this hypothesis by measuring the variability of average temperature across 20-year generations from 500-1900. Looking across countries, ethnic groups, and the descendants of immigrants, we find that populations with ancestors who lived in environments with more stability from one generation to the next place a greater importance in maintaining tradition today. These populations also exhibit more persistence in their traditions over time. JEL Classification:N10, Q54

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Climate Shocks and (Very) Long-Run Productivity

Cited by 6 publications

References 51 publications

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

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