Climate shift of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in 1993/1994 and its physical causes

Lin, Aoxiang; Zhang, Renhe

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05086-4

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The averaged onset dates are 26 May and 13 May during the two epochs, respectively. The interdecadal shift of SCSSM onset date around 1993/1994 is statistically significant at 95% confidence level according to the Student's t test, and this result is consistent with other studies (Kajikawa and Wang, 2012;Yuan and Chen, 2013;Lin and Zhang, 2020).…”

Section: Scssm Onset-related Interdecadal Change Of Mid-upper Tropospsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Yuan and Chen (2013) further explained that the interdecadal warming of the tropical western Pacific leads to active convection over there and early eastward retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors the early onset of the SCSSM. Lin and Zhang (2020) suggested that the interdecadal warming over the western equatorial Pacific modulates the low-level zonal winds around the Kalimantan Island, which affects the subtropical high and the interdecadal advanced SCSSM onset. Xiang and Wang (2013) found more specific results that the early onset of the summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is mainly regulated by the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific, while the early onset of the SCSSM is mainly attributed to the positive SST anomaly near the Philippine Sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interdecadal Change of the Winter-Spring Tropospheric Temperature Over Asia and its Impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

You

Jian

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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The interdecadal change of the winter-spring tropospheric temperature over Asia and its impact on the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset are investigated in this study. The SCSSM onset experiences a significant advance around the mid-1990s, which is attributed to the positive interdecadal anomaly of meridional temperature gradient in the mid-upper troposphere in May over the South China Sea monsoon region. This positive interdecadal anomaly can be traced back to the previous winter and spring, mainly associated with the mid-upper tropospheric warming in the East Asian subtropics. During the interdecadal anomalous seasonal evolution of the East Asian subtropical mid-upper tropospheric temperature, advection of the warm temperature anomaly by climatological mean wind overtakes the effects of anomalous adiabatic cooling and diabatic cooling, leading to a net interdecadal seasonal warming in winter. In spring, the adiabatic heating caused by the interdecadal anomalous subsidence flow cannot offset the effects of interdecadal anomalous cold advection and diabatic cooling, resulting in a net interdecadal seasonal cooling. However, the interdecadal seasonal cooling in spring is not strong enough to offset the interdecadal seasonal warming in winter, preserving an interdecadal mid-upper tropospheric warming over the subtropical East Asia in late spring. This interdecadal warming provides a favorable condition for the interdecadal advance of the SCSSM onset. Both observational analyses and numerical experiments suggest that the interdecadal change of atmospheric thermodynamic processes in winter−spring is related to the interdecadal warming in the tropical western Pacific. The enhanced convection and condensation heating over the regions from the South China Sea to the Philippines, forced by the tropical western Pacific warming, stimulates an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere and warming in the whole troposphere over the subtropical East Asia.

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Section: Scssm Onset-related Interdecadal Change Of Mid-upper Tropospsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal Change of the Winter-Spring Tropospheric Temperature Over Asia and its Impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

You

Jian

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…Previous studies have discussed the role of the meridional gradient of zonal winds in the interdecadal variability of SCSSM. Lin and Zhang found that SST anomalies in the key region (140°–150°E, 5°S–2.5°N) have a significant correlation with the meridional gradient of zonal wind in the SCS, resulting in an obvious shift of SCSSM onset (Lin & Zhang, 2020). Generally, vorticity comprises two terms: the meridional gradient of zonal winds (

- \partial u / \partial y

) and the zonal gradient of meridional winds (

\partial v / \partial x

).…”

Section: Possible Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and North Pacific meridional sea surface temperature anomalies

Zhao,

Liu,

Yao

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the connection between significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific during boreal spring (February–April, FMA) and the subsequent South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset. The SST anomalies, similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), referred to as the PMM+ mode, are defined to examine the new influencing factor on the SCSSM onset. Our findings reveal that the (February–March–April, FMA) PMM+ has a noteworthy positive correlation with the subsequent May SCSSM onset date, with this correlation being minimally affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding winter. A robust positive PMM+ in boreal spring can be persist until May via atmosphere–ocean interaction. The cooling area over Western North Pacific would reduce precipitation heating, thereby generating Rossby waves that reinforce the formation of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS. As a result, easterly winds and suppressed convection prevail over the SCS, making the SCSSM break out later than normal. Furthermore, the amplification of anticyclonic vorticity anomalies also strengthens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) stronger and shifts its position further westward compared to normal years, thereby blocking active convection to the west of the SCS. Given the weakened relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SCSSM onset in recent years, the PMM+ could be considered as a promising preceding signal for the SCSSM onset, thus holding significant implications for the SCSSM prediction efforts.

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“…Previous studies have revealed that the extreme events in China are associated with the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) (Wang [32] ; Yin et al [33] ), the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) (Chen et al [34] ; Lin and Zhang [35] ), the Southwest Australian monsoon circulation (SWAC) (Feng et al [36] ), the western north Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) (Choi and Kim [37] ), and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Specifically, the stronger EASM pushes the rainfall front to the northwest, pushing a large amount of water vapor over East Asia (Lau and Li [38] ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual Variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

XUE,

WU,

CHEN

et al. 2023

JTM

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The frequent occurrence of dry and hot (DH) days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health. This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem. The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations, indicating a significant upward trend. Additionally, DH events were observed to occur frequently. The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990, decreased from 1991 to 1997, and stayed stable after 1997. The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming (IOBW) in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Compared with the negative phase of IOBW, in the positive phase of IOBW, 500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced, the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west, more solar radiation reached the surface, surface outgoing longwave radiation increased, and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China. The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW, and the abnormal circulation of the positive (negative) phases of ESAM was unfavorable (favorable) for the increase in the number of DH days. A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression, incorporating the key climate factors. The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65, and the root-mean-square error was 2.8. In addition, independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day. The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model, providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.

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Climate shift of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in 1993/1994 and its physical causes

Cited by 12 publications

References 29 publications

Interdecadal Change of the Winter-Spring Tropospheric Temperature Over Asia and its Impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Interdecadal Change of the Winter-Spring Tropospheric Temperature Over Asia and its Impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and North Pacific meridional sea surface temperature anomalies

Interannual Variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

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