Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models

Huusko, Linnea; Bender, Frida A.‐M.; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Storelvmo, Trude

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac0748

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…By 2100, the difference in 2-m air temperature anomalies between two model versions reaches around 1.5 K. The greater value around 6.0 K is achieved by a model with higher sensitivity. This is consistent with Huusko et al (2021); Grose et al (2018); Forster et al (2013), which confirmed that future projections show a stronger relationship than historical ones between warming and climate sensitivity. In contrast to feedback strength, which is more important in forecasting future temperature change, historical warming is more associated with model forcing.…”

Section: Near Surface Air Temperature Changesupporting

confidence: 89%

Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model

Vorobyeva,

Volodin,

Chernenkov

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The study presents a simulation of climate change across Northern Eurasia during the 20th and 21st centuries using two different versions of the Earth system model developed by the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Model version INMCM5 participates in CMIP6 and has the lowest equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) among the CMIP6 models. In the next model version, INMCM6, changes in the physical parameterisations lead to an increase in ECS by a factor of 2. Changes in near-surface temperature, precipitation, snow cover area and sea ice extent simulated by both model versions are compared with available observational and reanalysis data. Climate change predictions for the middle and end of the 21st century are provided by two model versions. Both model versions simulate similar climate changes for the upcoming two decades. After the middle of 21st century, the model version with high equilibrium climate sensitivity simulates stronger climate changes over Northern Eurasia than the model version with low sensitivity. But, in general, the ratio of predicted warming is much less than the ratio of ECS.

show abstract

Section: Near Surface Air Temperature Changesupporting

confidence: 89%

Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model

Vorobyeva,

Volodin,

Chernenkov

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The higher climate sensitivity of NZESM means that global mean surface temperature will increase more strongly with greenhouse gas emissions than considered realistic. Recent results suggest that in particular surface temperature changes in tropical regions are more directly impacted by the higher climate sensitivity than in the Southern Ocean (Huusko et al, 2021). Instead of a multimodel approach (Alexander et al, 2018;Holbrook et al, 2019; Oliver et al, 2019;Hayashida et al, 2020;Plecha and Soares, 2020), an ensemble approach has been used in this regional study, with three ensemble members in each SSP, to explore the solution space of MHW projections in an eddy permitting system.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Future Marine Heatwaves for the Oceans Around New Zealand Using New Zealand's Earth System Model

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper investigates marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics in New Zealand's Earth System Model (NZESM) simulations for present-day conditions and how they are projected to change in the future in relation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Three emission scenarios following the state of the art shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSPs, SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, and SSP3 7.0) are each evaluated with a set of three ensemble members. These analyses are focused on the ocean around New Zealand, where NZESM captures boundary currents and mesoscale eddies, due to its high-resolution nested ocean grid. For present-day conditions, the model overestimates MHW intensity and underestimates the number of annual MHW days for subtropical waters, while some smaller positive biases are present in subantarctic waters compared to observations. Despite this, NZESM agrees with the observational pattern that more intense MHWs and more annual MHW days are found in subtropical waters compared to subantarctic waters. NZESM projects that MHW intensity will increase more strongly in subtropical waters compared to subantarctic waters, while the largest changes in annual MHW days are projected south of Australia and the Tasman Sea in the Subtropical Front (STF) frontal region, which suggests a southward shift of the STF under increased greenhouse gas emissions. Results using a high-emission scenario (SSP3 7.0) show an increase between 80 and 100% of median MHW intensities by the end of the century relative to the present-day for all analyzed coastal regions, and MHW conditions could become permanent year-round by the end of the century.

show abstract

“…Moreover, Huusko et al . 66 showed that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the TCR is a better predictor of regional warming throughout the 21st century. From the 60 models with both historical air temperature trends and TCR estimates, we excluded the 21 with both estimates outside the likely range.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

Beck,

McVicar,

Vergopolan

et al. 2023

Sci Data

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901–1930 to 1991–2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991–2020 to 2071–2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen.

show abstract

Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models

Cited by 10 publications

References 48 publications

Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model

Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model

Projections of Future Marine Heatwaves for the Oceans Around New Zealand Using New Zealand's Earth System Model

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About