Climate-sensitive disease outbreaks in the aftermath of extreme climatic events: A scoping review

Alcayna, Tilly; Fletcher, Isabel; Gibb, Rory; Tremblay, Léo; Funk, Sebastian; Rao, Bhargavi; Lowe, Rachel

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.03.011

Cited by 24 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 100 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This impact close to half of the world's population that live in low-and low-middle income countries in tropical zones [10]. Given the inequitable repercussions on human welfare, there is an unfortunate but not unsurprising irony of disaster risk reduction that the majority of global research on climate change focuses on geographical regionstemperate zones containing high-income countrieswhere the threat of emerging infectious diseases is least likely to occur [11]. This reflects the socioeconomic inequity between the affluent nations of the Global North, mainly the G20 states, and the politically and culturally marginalized countries of the Global South, of which Pakistan is one.…”

Section: Health Inequitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pakistan floods: Incidence of vector- and water-borne infectious diseases soars

Taylor‐Robinson

2022

Microbes and Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Health Inequitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pakistan floods: Incidence of vector- and water-borne infectious diseases soars

Taylor‐Robinson

2022

Microbes and Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Changing temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme weather events are generally expected to drive changes in the global burden and distribution of infectious diseases 6 . However, the implications of warming for vector-borne diseases remain particularly unclear and are often difficult to estimate compared to other climate-associated risks due to data sparsity and confounding by climate-independent factors 7,8,9 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia

Childs,

Lyberger,

Harris

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change poses significant threats to public health, with dengue representing a growing concern due to its high existing burden and sensitivity to climatic conditions. Yet, the quantitative impacts of temperature warming on dengue, both in the past and in the future, remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantify how dengue responds to climatic fluctuations, and use this inferred temperature response to estimate the impacts of historical warming and forecast trends under future climate change scenarios. To estimate the causal impact of temperature on the spread of dengue in the Americas and Asia, we assembled a dataset encompassing nearly 1.5 million dengue incidence records from 21 countries. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between temperature and dengue incidence with the largest marginal effects at lower temperatures (around 15°C), peak incidence at 27.8°C (95% CI: 27.3 - 28.2°C), and subsequent declines at higher temperatures. Our findings indicate that historical climate change has already increased dengue incidence 18% (12 - 25%) in the study region, and projections suggest a potential increase of 40% (17 - 76) to 57% (33 - 107%) by mid-century depending on the climate scenario, with some areas seeing up to 200% increases. Notably, our models suggest that lower emissions scenarios would substantially reduce the warming-driven increase in dengue burden. Together, these insights contribute to the broader understanding of how long-term climate patterns influence dengue, providing a valuable foundation for public health planning and the development of strategies to mitigate future risks due to climate change.

show abstract

“…On the other hand, hospitalization and increased mortality rates due to heat waves are also observed in different countries [ [9] , [10] , [11] ]. Excessive precipitation events are correlated with waterborne disease outbreaks [ [12] , [13] , [14] ]. Due to climate change, an increase in global temperature and flooding events has been observed in recent years [ [15] , [16] , [17] ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%