Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and Forests in Switzerland

Abstract

There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. Some possible measures to maintain goods and services of agricultural and forest ecosystems are mentioned, but it is suggested that more frequent extremes may have more severe consequences than progressive changes in means. In order to effectively decrease the risk for social and economic impacts, long-term adaptive strategies in agriculture and silviculture, investments for prevention, and new insurance concepts seem necessary.

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

“…As a consequence of all these potential impacts of climate change on the health of plants and their associated organisms, there is increasing recognition that we need to develop strategies for long-term adaptation and insurance in agriculture and silviculture (Fuhrer et al 2006;Ciscar et al 2011). The importance of adaptive management is also stressed from the point of view of North American forest management by Millar et al (2007), who point out that future climate change challenges will not be met by a single solution, but by a mix of different approaches adapted to different situations.…”

A Review of Rainfall Erosivity as a Natural Factor of Gully Erosion

“…Moreover, various authors concluded that a high kinetic energy is a common indicator of a high rainfall erosivitiy and indeed more gully erosion. Salako (2008) and Fuhrer et al (2006) opined that climate variability is an important factor to determine rainfall erosivity as there is a decrease in rainfall where rainfall erosivity is considered to be high. Also, climate change affects the intensity, amount, frequency and type of rainfall in the United Kingdom thereby affecting the soil erodibility rate.…”

Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland

“…The 2003 drought event had severe impacts on both the environment (e.g. significantly lower discharge in many rivers; rapid mass losses of mountain glaciers; unusually high amounts of slope instability events) and on socio-economic systems (heat-related health problems and mortality, economic losses for the agricultural and the energy sector) (BUWAL et al, 2004;ProClim, 2005;Fuhrer et al, 2006;Beniston, 2007). Public authorities, politicians and the different water users, such as farmers, shipping operators, hydropower companies, health services and forest fire services, were surprised by the severity of the drought event and by its impacts.…”