Climate Risk Assessment for Water Resources Development in the Niger River Basin Part II: Runoff Elasticity and Probabilistic Analysis

Grijsen, Johan; Tarhule, Aondover; Brown, Christopher J.; Ghile, Yonas; Taner, Ü.; Jordan, Alyssa; Doffou, H. N.; Guéro, Abdou; Dessouassi, Robert; Soungalo, Kone; Coulibaly, Bréhima; Harshadeep, Nagaraja Rao

doi:10.5772/56708

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The Niger River also cuts across several eastwest oriented climate zones, transitioning from tropical areas to the semiarid Sahel one up to the desert Sahara and back. This complex composition of geographical and social factors, as well as ongoing impacts of climate change (Mahé et al, 2013;Roudier et al, 2014;Roudier et al, 2011), have led to an intense pressure on water and environmental resources of the region (Grijsen et al, 2013). Water resources availability is especially sensitive as the main livelihood of the people is traditional, low input, rain-fed farming, and nomadic pastoralism (Okpara et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water resources availability is especially sensitive as the main livelihood of the people is traditional, low input, rain-fed farming, and nomadic pastoralism (Okpara et al, 2013). In 2002, foreseeing the future risks for the welfare of their people, governments of the nine aforementioned countries developed an action plan under the umbrella of the Niger Basin Authority (Grijsen et al, 2013), founded on principles of integrated water resources management. To implement this effort, decision makers and advisors need valid and reliable studies on the recent trends and future forecasts of water availability in the basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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GRACE Detected Rise of Groundwater in the Sahelian Niger River Basin

2017

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West African regions along the Niger River experience climate and land cover changes that affect hydrological processes and therewith the distribution of fresh water resources (WR). This study provides an investigation of long‐term changes in terrestrial water storages (TWS) of the Niger River basin and its subregions by analyzing a decade of satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. The location of large trends in TWS maps of differently processed GRACE solutions points to rising groundwater stocks. Soil moisture data from a global land surface model allow separating the effect of significantly increasing amount of WR from that of TWS variations. Surface water variations from a global water storage model validated with observations from altimetry data were applied to estimate the groundwater component in WR. For the whole Niger, a rise in groundwater stocks is estimated to be 93 ± 61 km3 between January 2003 and December 2013. A careful analysis of uncertainties in all data sets supports the significance of the groundwater rise. Our results confirm previous observations of rising water tables, indicating that effects of land cover changes on groundwater storage are relevant on basin scales. Areas with rising water storage are stocking a comfortable backup to mitigate possible future droughts and to deliver water to remote areas. This has implications for Niger water management strategies. Increasing groundwater recharges may be accompanied by reduction in water quality. This study helps to inform authority's decision to mitigate its negative impacts on local communities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GRACE Detected Rise of Groundwater in the Sahelian Niger River Basin

2017

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“…Modelling based on a common "baseline" global emissions scenario (closest to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 in IPCC's Technical Assessment Report 5, 2014) has been found to be consistent with a projected rise in average temperatures in the Niger Basin region of between +1.0 and +3.0°C by 2050 (Grijsen et al 2013).…”

Section: Applying Vrcs To Local Climate Vulnerabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…The hydrology of the western part of the Sahel is dominated by the Niger River, the second-largest in terms of flow on the African continent. The region has also undergone significant fluctuation in rainfall over time, most recently in the period since 1970, which has been characterized as "the most dramatic example of inter-decadal climatic variability ever measured quantitatively on the planet since instrumental records have been kept" (Rasmussen and Arkin 1993;Grijsen et al 2013;Hulme 2001;Redelsperger et al 2006). Combined with the general difficulty in accurately modelling the effects of climate change on regional hydrological systems, this background natural variability makes future climate risks and stresses difficult to assess.…”

Section: Applying Vrcs To Local Climate Vulnerabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing Climate Change Impacts in the Sahel Using Vulnerability Reduction Credits

Schultz¹,

Adler²

2017

Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics

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Adaptation projects may be difficult to prioritize and finance, as the results of projects are difficult to quantifiably measure and compare across project types, and no singular "unit" for adaptation outcomes exists. The Higher Ground Foundation is developing the Vulnerability Reduction Credit (VRC™), which incorporates cost/benefit analysis and per capita vulnerability equalization tools to measure the outputs of climate adaptation projects. The VRC quantifies in a singular unit measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. This chapter summarizes the structure and utility of VRCs and shows through a case study from Talle, Niger, how VRCs are created and integrated into Sahelian community adaptations to heterogeneous climate risks such as flooding and droughts. VRC analysis and crediting may serve as a monitoring and evaluation tool and as an instrument to help secure project finance while supporting sustained adaptation. The chapter further considers the potential benefits to governments, donors and economies. VRC financing has advantages over standard development assistance models, particularly for project risk management, project preparation, enhanced transparency of adaptation spend, and scaling of successful pilot projects throughout an economy. Keywords IntroductionClimate change is happening and it is impacting communities around the world. While all nations will be impacted by climate change, primarily for the worse, the poorest countries face the most human vulnerability.Sub-Saharan Africa is both particularly vulnerable to climate change and lacking sufficient adaptive capacity to address many of the impacts on agriculture, the built environment, health, and other sectors. The economic impact of climate change will be considerable; by the end of the century climate change is estimated to cost 10% of Africa's GDP, and the costs of effective adaptation could be between $US 10 billion and £UK 30 billion per year by 2030 (Pan African Climate Justice Alliance 2009). Africa will bear the highest costs per capita in terms of GDP (Watkiss et al. 2016).In the context of planning processes, research has shown few examples of climate information being integrated into the planning of long-term development. Reasons given for this include short-term development challenges focusing decision-makers' attention on shorter timescales, a lack of both serviceable medium-to long-term climate information and integrated assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability, or adaptation, and a communication mismatch between the producers and users of climate information (Jones et al. 2015).Although expenditures are generally viewed as insufficient, a considerable amount of adaptation investment is already taking place in developing countries. Overseas development assistance is considerable, but the traditional approach (as typified by the Paris Climate Agreement) for financing climate adaptation in developing countries is to set a global monetary target, rather than focus on vulnerability reduction as the measure o...

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“…This makes irrigated agriculture in the Niger River Basin insensitive to decreased runoff as a result of the projected climate changes, but it places pressures on the existing reservoir systems to provide a reliable water supply for hydro- production, navigation, and environmental flows [9].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Agricultural Water Allocation on the Ecosystems in the Inner Niger River Delta

Kassambara

Ganji

Kajisa

2018

GEOMATE

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ABSTRACT:The Niger River is a lifeline for humans and biodiversity in Africa's Sahelian region. Owing to climate change and population increase over the past three decades, the inhabitants of the Sahel have witnessed that their ecosystem is under threat, and a significant reduction of its resources has occurred, particularly in the Inner Niger Delta. In the recent years, because of the Malian government's policy of developing large-scale irrigation, a sustained rate of expansion of around 5,000 ha of new reclamation area has been seen each year in Office du Niger located upstream of the Inner Delta. The expansion of annual rice double cropping and sugarcane cultivation constitute the main factors for the reduction of the water resources downstream in this Delta. This paper analyzes the hydrological impacts of this large-scale irrigation and crop pattern on the floodplain of the Inner Delta during high-flow and low-flow periods. The study results indicated that despite the rainfall and recent increases in upstream flows of the Niger River, the flooded area size has reduced. We could confirm that the annual average water-withdrawal proportion barely changed during the high-flow period but changed significantly during the low-flow period when the size of the paddy rice and sugarcane area increased. Therefore, changing the crop pattern toward vegetables instead of paddy rice and sugarcane during the low-flow period might be a solution.

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Climate Risk Assessment for Water Resources Development in the Niger River Basin Part II: Runoff Elasticity and Probabilistic Analysis

Cited by 11 publications

References 11 publications

GRACE Detected Rise of Groundwater in the Sahelian Niger River Basin

GRACE Detected Rise of Groundwater in the Sahelian Niger River Basin

Addressing Climate Change Impacts in the Sahel Using Vulnerability Reduction Credits

Impact of Agricultural Water Allocation on the Ecosystems in the Inner Niger River Delta

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