Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland’s fisheries

Abstract

Iceland’s fisheries system is well-governed, data-rich, and has adapted to past ecological change. It thus provides an opportunity to identify social-ecological attributes of climate resilience and interactions among them. We elicited barriers and enabling conditions for adaptation in Iceland’s fisheries from semi-structured expert interviews, using projections of fish habitat shifts by mid-century to guide discussion. Interviewees highlighted flexible management, highly connected institutions that facilitate learning, ample assets to expand adaptive options, and cultural comfort with change. However, examining how these attributes interact in reinforcing feedback loops revealed potential rigidity traps, where optimization for resilience to stock shifts may render the system more vulnerable to extreme environmental change and social backlash. This study articulates resilience attributes that Iceland and other fisheries systems might prioritize as the climate changes. It further explores circumstances in which these same attributes risk forming traps, and potential pathways to escape them. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-023-01859-8.

Diverse pathways for climate resilience in marine fishery systems

“…A stakeholder from a developing country might, for example, relate to the Group 1 archetype ('ecologically strong, governance constrained'), which typically exemplifies strong attributes of ecological resilience that allow the fishery to persist despite unjust or ineffective governance regimes. In fisheries where high intrinsic ecological resilience can mask ineffective or inequitable governance, focusing on responsive and participatory governance, both 'robust sources of resilience', can foster supportive governance structures that benefit the fishery (Mason et al, 2023). In fisheries with high ecological diversity, such as small-scale coral reef fisheries, place attachment and social capital can support leadership and participatory governance, which may be a critical strategy in the face of limited economic opportunities outside of the fishery (Group 2: 'strong ecological and social processes, despite lower wealth and infrastructure').…”

“…Conversely, in Pathway B, 'resilience through economic assets and effective governance', efficient conversion of fish and invertebrates into economic assets is the primary driver of reinforcing feedback loops that support resilience. (Carpenter & Brock, 2008); as illustrated in the North-East Atlantic small pelagics fishery (Kapstein et al, 2023;Mason et al, 2023). This is a key concern for fisheries under uncertain future climate conditions.…”