Climate research must sharpen its view

Marotzke, Jochem; Jakob, Christian; Bony, Sandrine; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; O’Gorman, Paul A.; Hawkins, Ed; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Quéré, Corinne Le; Nowicki, Sophie; Paulavets, Katsia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stevens, Björn; Tuma, Matthias

doi:10.1038/nclimate3206

Cited by 90 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Despite recent progress, this knowledge remains fragmented and incomplete. One consequence is that models and their predictions remain unreliable (Trenberth 2011;Stevens and Bony 2013;Shepherd 2014;Marotzke et al 2017).…”

Section: Water Security and The Imperative Of Improved Understandingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Researchers recognise various problems with these models (Stevens and Bony 2013;Shepherd 2014;Marotzke et al 2017). For example, one summary noted that`most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity` (Trenberth 2011).…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, the predictions of this cycle in a changing climate are amongst the most uncertain. This constitutes a major challenge in ascertaining future water availability' (Marotzke et al 2017). …”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Sheil

2018

For. Ecosyst.

123

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Theory and evidence indicate that trees and other vegetation influence the atmospheric water-cycle in various ways. These influences are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than is widely realised. While there is little doubt that changes in tree cover will impact the water-cycle, the wider consequences remain difficult to predict as the underlying relationships and processes remain poorly characterised. Nonetheless, as forests are vulnerable to human activities, these linked aspects of the water-cycle are also at risk and the potential consequences of large scale forest loss are severe. Here, for non-specialist readers, I review our knowledge of the links between vegetation-cover and climate with a focus on forests and rain (precipitation). I highlight advances, uncertainties and research opportunities. There are significant shortcomings in our understanding of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and of its representation in climate models. A better understanding of the role of vegetation and tree-cover will reduce some of these shortcomings. I outline and illustrate various research themes where these advances may be found. These themes include the biology of evaporation, aerosols and atmospheric motion, as well as the processes that determine monsoons and diurnal precipitation cycles. A novel theory-the 'biotic pump'-suggests that evaporation and condensation can exert a major influence over atmospheric dynamics. This theory explains how high rainfall can be maintained within those continental land-masses that are sufficiently forested. Feedbacks within many of these processes can result in non-linear behaviours and the potential for dramatic changes as a result of forest loss (or gain): for example, switching from a wet to a dry local climate (or visa-versa). Much remains unknown and multiple research disciplines are needed to address this: forest scientists and other biologists have a major role to play. New ideas, methods and data offer opportunities to improve understanding. Expect surprises.

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Section: Water Security and The Imperative Of Improved Understandingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Sheil

2018

For. Ecosyst.

123

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“…Instead of the commonly used Langmuir equation, we chose a linear approach for sorption, which works well for low soil phosphorus concentrations, which are common in most natural ecosystems (McGechan and Lewis, 2002). The calibration of the Langmuir equation for global application represents a major challenge as global datasets on soil phosphorus content are limited (Yang and Post, 2011) and parameters cannot be derived with enough confidence.…”

Section: Soil Mineral Phosphorusmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As it has been acknowledged that human activity is changing Earth's climate, it is argued that climate research needs to sharpen its view (Marotzke et al, 2017). As its new suggested focus is the fate of the emitted carbon, which is closely linked to the extensive scientific debate about the importance of nutrient limitation (nitrogen and phosphorus supply) for future land carbon uptake (for example, Peñuelas et al, 2013;Wieder et al, 2015;Brovkin and Goll, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A representation of the phosphorus cycle for ORCHIDEE (revision 4520)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Land surface models rarely incorporate the terrestrial phosphorus cycle and its interactions with the carbon cycle, despite the extensive scientific debate about the importance of nitrogen and phosphorus supply for future land carbon uptake. We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model, and evaluate it with data from nutrient manipulation experiments along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii.ORCHIDEE accounts for the influence of the nutritional state of vegetation on tissue nutrient concentrations, photosynthesis, plant growth, biomass allocation, biochemical (phosphatase-mediated) mineralization, and biological nitrogen fixation. Changes in the nutrient content (quality) of litter affect the carbon use efficiency of decomposition and in return the nutrient availability to vegetation. The model explicitly accounts for root zone depletion of phosphorus as a function of root phosphorus uptake and phosphorus transport from the soil to the root surface.The model captures the observed differences in the foliage stoichiometry of vegetation between an early (300-year) and a late (4.1 Myr) stage of soil development. The contrasting sensitivities of net primary productivity to the addition of either nitrogen, phosphorus, or both among sites are in general reproduced by the model. As observed, the model simulates a preferential stimulation of leaf level productivity when nitrogen stress is alleviated, while leaf level productivity and leaf area index are stimulated equally when phosphorus stress is alleviated. The nutrient use efficiencies in the model are lower than observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.We conclude that ORCHIDEE is able to reproduce the shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along the soil development chronosequence, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition.

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Autonomous observing platform CO₂ data shed new light on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

Olsen

2017

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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While the number of surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements has soared the recent decades, the Southern Ocean remains undersampled. Williams et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005541) now present pCO2 estimates based on data from pH‐sensor equipped Bio‐Argo floats, which have been measuring in the Southern Ocean since 2014. The authors demonstrate the utility of these data for understanding the carbon cycle in this region, which has a large influence on the distribution of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Biogeochemical sensors deployed on autonomous platforms hold the potential to shape our view of the ocean carbon cycle in the coming decades.

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Climate research must sharpen its view

Cited by 90 publications

References 8 publications

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

A representation of the phosphorus cycle for ORCHIDEE (revision 4520)

Autonomous observing platform CO₂ data shed new light on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

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Climate research must sharpen its view

Cited by 90 publications

References 8 publications

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

A representation of the phosphorus cycle for ORCHIDEE (revision 4520)

Autonomous observing platform CO2 data shed new light on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

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Product

Resources

About

Autonomous observing platform CO₂ data shed new light on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle