Climate remains an important driver of post‐European vegetation change in the eastern United States

Pederson, Neil; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Dyer, James E.; Foster, David R.; Goldblum, David; Hart, Justin L.; Hessl, Amy; Iverson, Louis R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Martín-Benito, Dario; McCarthy, Brian C.; McEwan, Ryan W.; Mladenoff, David J.; Parker, Albert; Shuman, Bryan N.; Williams, John W.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12779

Cited by 102 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Hotter drought may not have occurred in some places yet, or not have been extreme enough yet to trigger amplified tree mortality, but that does not make those locations invulnerable to more extreme future events. Eastern USA forests, for example, recently have not experienced hotter drought events of similar magnitude to western USA forests (Pederson et al 2014a), nor similarly v www.esajournals.org Fig. 6.…”

Section: Issues Contributing To Underestimation Of Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 91%

“…With global warming the expectations are for range retractions through mortality at the warmer ''trailing edge'' margins of species distributions, with range extensions through migration anticipated at the colder ''leading edge'' (Hampe and Jump 2011). However, implying greater vulnerability (Table 2, EF), in some regions tree populations do not appear to be tracking recent climate changes fully or at all (Feeley et al 2011, Zu et al 2013, Fensham et al 2014, Nowacki and Abrams 2014; but see Pederson et al 2014a), and overall there are questions about whether natural tree migration rates will be fast enough to keep up with projected rates and magnitudes of climate change (Feeley et al 2012, Corlett and Westcott 2013, IPCC 2014, with habitat fragmentation a growing impediment to species migration and colonization (Haddad et al 2015). Implying lesser vulnerability at global scales (Table 1, EF), biome-scale resilience in water-use efficiency to interannual precipitation variability has been observed (Ponce-Campos et al 2013), which can somewhat buffer hotter drought effects.…”

Section: Ecological Feedbacks (Ef)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

2015

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Abstract. Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures-''hotter drought'', an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene-are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

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Section: Issues Contributing To Underestimation Of Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Ecological Feedbacks (Ef)mentioning

confidence: 99%

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

2015

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“…Our abundance-based poleward shift rate (11.0 km per decade) is similar to a previous estimated rate (10 km per decade) that is based on leading/trailing edges for forests in the eastern United States ( 23 ). The fact that the longitudinal shift was 1.4 times faster than latitudinal shift suggests that vegetation dynamics are more sensitive to precipitation than to temperature, at least in a near-term time frame, because moisture availability is considered a critical factor in forest dynamics of eastern North America ( 32 ). When considering the predominantly westward and northward shifts of tree species, it is important to understand the geographical settings of the study area, because it has hard boundaries to the east and south (that is, ocean) but soft boundaries to the west and north (that is, climate limitations).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergence of species responses to climate change

et al. 2017

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“…Others argued, however, that high moisture during the same time period could explain the observed patterns (41).…”

Section: Observing Changes In Plant Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Franklin

Serra‐Diaz

Syphard

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

317

225

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This contribution is part of a special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2014.Contributed by Janet Franklin, February 2, 2016 (sent for review October 8, 2015; reviewed by Gregory P. Asner, Monica G. Turner, and Peter M. Vitousek)Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.climate change | drought | forests | global change | land-use change T errestrial plant communities include forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands; they support economic activities including forestry and grazing and provide other ecosystem services (1) such as carbon sequestration and water delivery. Plant communities play a key role in global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, oxygen, water, and nitrogen, with feedbacks to the oceans, atmosphere, and climate. The distribution of animals on land is often influenced by the distribution of vegetation, and therefore, plant community dynamics affect biodiversity. Changes in the Earth's vegetation in response to climate change, and associated faunal changes, may have played a role in the evolution of the human lineage (2, 3). Thus, human populations have a vested interest in understanding rapid global change effects on terrestrial plant communities.Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gasses and associated changes in the climate, as well...

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Climate remains an important driver of post‐European vegetation change in the eastern United States

Cited by 102 publications

References 61 publications

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Divergence of species responses to climate change

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

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