Climate projections of a multi-variate heat stress index: the role of downscaling and bias correction

Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Herrera, Sixto; Fischer, Andreas; Kjellström, Tord; Schwierz, Cornelia

doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-294

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) derived from the regression equation is then used to evaluate the developed equation performance. To validate the developed empirical equation, bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are then used [40][41]. These statistics are calculated based on the data at two provinces in the central and eastern parts of Thailand.…”

Section: ) Data Quality Control and Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Empirically Derived Equation from Simple Heat Index for Calculating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: A Case Study of Thailand

Paengkaew

Limsakul²,

Junggoth

et al. 2020

App. Envi. Res.

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The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index is a standard for assessing environmental heat stress, but the requirement of expensive instrument with specialized maintenance is limited its use. This study aims to develop the empirical equation to estimate the WBGT from Heat Index (HI) calculated from portable temperature and humidity recorder (THR), based on the data collected at seven sites covering all regions of Thailand. Comparative analysis shows that the HI values calculated from THR (HITHR) are consistent well with those measured from the thermal environmental monitor (HIQT36) as evidenced by a highly positive correlation between them (r=0.97; p<0.01; n=4,303). These results suggest high reliability of the portable THR and its acceptance to be used instead of the standard QT36 device. Based on a simple linear regression developed to estimate WBGT from the HITHR, it was found that the model accounts for at least 90% of the variance of the observed WBGT (dependent variable). In addition, validation of the model with the statistical methods shows relatively small errors of the estimated WBGT values in comparison to the observed values. With this evidence, the developed empirical regression equation can be used to estimate WBGT with high accuracy and confidence. Simple and easier to use for the practitioners who are involved in public health works at community level, a heat monitoring tool kit consisting of a THR, WBGT chart and recommended actions were further developed based on the results obtained. This tool kit is a low-cost and simple device which can be used by various community-level stakeholders to prevent and reduce heat injuries and deaths of risk groups, especially the elderly. This tool is necessary in light of anthropogenic-induced warming and Thailand’s aging society.

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Section: ) Data Quality Control and Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Empirically Derived Equation from Simple Heat Index for Calculating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: A Case Study of Thailand

Paengkaew

Limsakul²,

Junggoth

et al. 2020

App. Envi. Res.

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“…We used WBGT because it is widely used in this literature. We computed the WBGT for each grid cell and each day using the WBGT function in R package meteor (Hijmans, 2023) that provides a fast implementation of the algorithm developed by Liljegren et al (2008) as implemented by Casanueva (2019).…”

Section: Pwc Computationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change

Nelson,

Vanos,

Havenith

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) and three time periods: 1991–2010 (recent past), 2041–2060 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90‐day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end‐century/SSP5‐8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop‐growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo‐Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End‐century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid‐century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions—reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub‐Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor‐intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

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“…In this way, the biases between observed and projected data during the reference period should be corrected by using some methods that are called bias correction methods. Studies show that using an appropriate bias correction method can enhance the outputs of the GCMs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41] and as a result, a better understanding of the future climate condition. In this research, the linear scaling bias correction method was adopted to the daily projected precipitation values (the detailed information about the method can be found in [42]).…”

Section: Study Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Climate projections of a multi-variate heat stress index: the role of downscaling and bias correction

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

Empirically Derived Equation from Simple Heat Index for Calculating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: A Case Study of Thailand

Empirically Derived Equation from Simple Heat Index for Calculating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: A Case Study of Thailand

Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

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