Climate projection of Lake Superior under a future warming scenario

Abstract

In a future warming world, a fully dynamical model of Lake Superior projects that the lake will undergo significant physical and biological changes by the middle of the 21st century with important implications for the surrounding region. Projections for the winter include drastically reduced ice and very weak water column stratification. In contrast, the summertime surface warming is projected to begin earlier, last longer, and be more enhanced. In concert, summertime biological production is projected to shift earlier and become larger. These changes have potentially important consequences for stakeholders with interests in shipping, coastal habitability, fishing, water quality, and recreation. Perhaps more fundamentally, the projected changes imply that Lake Superior may change into a different kind of lake with a dramatically weakened dimictic behavior.

On the role of local depth and latitude on surface warming heterogeneity in the Laurentian Great Lakes

“…8c) support the crucial role of bathymetry in controlling the warming dynamics, discussed earlier. This warming pattern is consistent with that observed in the last decades (Mason et al 2016, Woolway and Merchant 2018, Zhong et al 2019, and results are coherent with projections obtained with a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Lake Superior (Matsumoto et al 2019). The timing of LSWT warming is described by the DOY map (Fig.…”

Projected Changes of Water Currents and Circulation in Lake Michigan Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios

“…More specifically, Lake Superior evidenced a strong correlation between the general lake circulation, surface temperature, and wind speed (Bennington et al., 2010). Climate projection of Lake Superior (2040–2069) under future warming conditions expects an enhanced and longer surface warming and stronger (weaker) lake stratification during summer (winter), which could trigger summertime biological production and shift the habitat in favor of invasive and warm water species (Matsumoto et al., 2019). Studies for the Great Lakes cover broad aspects of lake meteorology, circulation, biogeochemical cycle in a changing climate; however, a thorough analysis of lake dynamics for a long‐term climate projection is merely attempted.…”