Climate prediction for Brazil's Nordeste by empirical and numerical modeling methods

Hastenrath, Stefan; Sun, Liqiang; Moura, Antônio Divino

doi:10.1002/joc.1770

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…For the other months, skill values are often better, as demonstrated in Figure 12. Predictions are skilful when issued in the months from February to June, almost equally for all leads (except for the February case), in accordance with previous studies (Hastenrath et al, 2009 and references therein).…”

Section: Seas5/xds Local Predictionssupporting

confidence: 90%

A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil

Bürger

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A digital filter is introduced which treats the problem of predictability versus time averaging in a continuous, seamless manner. This seamless filter (SF) is characterized by a unique smoothing rule that determines the strength of smoothing in dependence on lead time. The rule needs to be specified beforehand, either by expert knowledge or by user demand. As a result, skill curves are obtained that allow a predictability assessment across a whole range of time‐scales, from daily to seasonal, in a uniform manner. The SF is applied to downscaled SEAS5 ensemble forecasts for two focus regions in or near the tropical belt, the river basins of the Karun in Iran and the São Francisco in Brazil. Both are characterized by strong seasonality and semi‐aridity, so that predictability across various time‐scales is in high demand. Among other things, it is found that from the start of the water year (autumn), areal precipitation is predictable with good skill for the Karun basin two and a half months ahead; for the São Francisco it is only one month, longer‐term prediction skill is just above the critical level.

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Section: Seas5/xds Local Predictionssupporting

confidence: 90%

A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil

Bürger

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…Essential is the diagnostic understanding of circulation mechanisms; statistical techniques merely serve to quantify the predictive relationships. The prediction efforts have been carried to successful real-time application over a decade (Greischar and Hastenrath 2000;Folland et al 2001;Moura and Hastenrath 2004;Hastenrath et al 2009). The precipitation departures depend prevailingly on the anomalous behavior of a single quasipermanent circulation system, the Atlantic ITCZ.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review

2011

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This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil's Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March-April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century.

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“…This includes collaboration on prediction methodology, climate diagnostics studies, and use of state-of-the-art models with the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the Earth Systems Research Laboratory. The IRI works with many international national-level climate services and ministries, such as those in Brazil (Sun et al 2006) (Hastenrath et al 2009), Chile (Verbist et al 2008), Ethiopia (Dinku et al 2013) (Dinku et al 2011) (Korecha & Barnston 2007), India (Mohanty et al 2013 (Baethgen & Gimenez 2009), and others. The IRI also works with regional climate centers that can be important hubs for information development and dissemination on the regional scale, and which also organize trainings for countries within the region.…”

Section: Partnerships For Research and Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The International Research Institute for Climate & Society: why, what and how

Goddard¹,

Baethgen²,

Bhojwani³

et al. 2014

Earth Perspectives

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A climate-informed and climate-ready world is possible. Large investments are being made toward adaptation and resilience to climate change, but many of those investments are separated from the more immediate climate-related vulnerabilities and opportunities that society faces. Information is increasingly available that could be used to guide action; however, information alone is not sufficient. Research at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) since 1996 has led to the identification of the several guiding principles to scope and address climate-related challenges to decision-and policy-makers at local-to-regional scale. These include climate-related information, such as assessment of the main vulnerabilities to climate variability and change in countries or regions, and the provision of climate information, products and tools to support decisions, including financial tools that are appropriate to the climate-related risk and that can mediate residual risk. The guiding principles also include identifying the technologies and practices that optimize results in coming years, demonstration of the usefulness of climate information to support climate-related decisions, training and capacity building, and partnerships for research and implementation. This essay introduces the evolution of the IRI and its work that is then elaborated through a series of articles that constitute a special issue of Earth Perspectives: Transdisciplinarity Enabled. The collection of articles provides insight into the science and process that lead to better climate-informed choices. Part of the collection of articles in the special issue covers specific stories of local-to-regional engagement with partners to address climate-related problems. Other articles represent how we do what we do, in particular highlighting the research, the climate forecast effort, and the IRI Data Library. Finally, there are two papers offered from partners that have long-time engagement with the IRI.

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Climate prediction for Brazil's Nordeste by empirical and numerical modeling methods

Cited by 15 publications

References 30 publications

A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil

A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review

The International Research Institute for Climate & Society: why, what and how

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