Climate-Induced International Migration and Conflicts

Cattaneo, Cristina; Bosetti, Valentina

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2858811

Cited by 1 publication

(7 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…The authors make a distinction between poor, lower-middle income and upper-middle income countries. The findings extend and confirm earlier results (see also Cattaneo and Peri (2016)) for rural-urban migration. Migration from rural to urban mainly takes place in countries that are at an intermediate level of economic development.…”

Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…When testing the hypothesis on international bilateral migration data for 117 countries over the period 1970-2000, Cattaneo and Bosetti (2017 find no significant relationship between climate-induced migrants and civil conflict in the destination countries, however. They use a measure of high level conflict, accounting for more than 25 deaths, and also find the same results when testing for civil war, but they do not test the possibilities of low-level social conflict.…”

Section: Climate Migration and Conflictmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…In the specific context of climate-induced migration, Cattaneo and Peri (2016) estimate a reduced form model of how international migration responds to temperature and rainfall. They include 115 countries in the analysis.…”

Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Peri and Sasahara (2019) explore the issue further, following up on Cattanao and Peri (2016). Both studies consider multiple countries.…”

Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This estimate is a one-year elasticity and only for countries with a large share of value added in agriculture. Cattaneo and Peri (2016) separate the response by income status and estimate that each one percent increase in temperature increases international migration rates by 4% in middle-income countries, whereas it decreases emigration rates in poor countries by 16%, ceteris paribus. These numbers imply that the migration rate from middle income countries would increase from 4.2% to 5%, whereas the migration rate from poor countries would decrease from 1.8% to 0.4%.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and Migration

Millock

Withagen

2021

Climate and Development

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We review some of the recent estimates of the effect of weather and climate on migration, and articles examining the historical evidence of such links. We identify four issues that have received less attention in previous reviews on the topic. The first one is general equilibrium effects of climate change and migration. The second one concerns accounting for thresholds in the climate-migration relationship. Some of the articles that we review incorporate non-linear effects, but only in the relation between income and migration, and in the relation between weather, climate and migration. Other thresholds are not yet incorporated into the literature. A third issue where much work remains to be done relates to climate change and conflict, and their influence on migration. Finally, we conclude with some reflections on the implications of the results for economic development. November 13, 2020 12:27 ws-rv9x6 Book Title "Migration chapter Millock Withagen with abstract" page 3 Climate and Migration 3 mate variability, as well as projections of future flows. Marchiori, Maystadt and Schumacher (2012) estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in Africa during the period 1960-2000, i.e., a minimum of 128,000 people every year. The projections based on their estimations predict 11.8 million additional migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2099. For India, Dallmann and Millock (2017) find that an increase in the frequency of droughts leads to an increase in the bilateral inter-state migration rate of 1.5 % on average, and by 1.7 % in agricultural states. Applying these estimates to past migrant flows over 5 years, they find 11.96 million additional migrants due to drought, or a yearly mean of 2.4 million displaced by drought alone during 1996 to 2001. For comparison, the IDMC states that 3.7 million people were displaced due to natural disasters in India in 2015 alone.International studies give estimates of the changes in current migration rates that may be expected from increases in temperature. Cai et al. (2016) estimate that each 1 • C increase in temperature implies a 4.7% increase in outmigration from the top 25% agricultural countries, whereas Backhaus, Martinez-Zarzoso and Muris (2015) estimate that a 1 • C higher average temperature in the countries of origin is associated with a 3.3 % increase in migration flows between a country pair over one year. This estimate is a one-year elasticity and only for countries with a large share of value added in agriculture. Cattaneo and Peri (2016) separate the response by income status and estimate that each one percent increase in temperature increases international migration rates by 4% in middle-income countries, whereas it decreases emigration rates in poor countries by 16%, ceteris paribus. These numbers imply that the migration rate from middle income countries would increase from 4.2% to 5%, whereas the migration rate from poor countries would decrease from 1.8% to 0.4%. When assessing these numbers, it is useful to recall...

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Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Climate Migration and Conflictmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Peri and Sasahara (2019) explore the issue further, following up on Cattanao and Peri (2016). Both studies consider multiple countries.…”

Section: Climate-induced Migration and Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%