Climate Indices and Their Impact on Maize Yield in Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

The State of Veracruz (Mexico) is highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze local climate extreme trends and explore potential relationships between climate indices and maize. The objectives of this research were (1) to describe recent trends of climate indices (1979–2018) and (2) to compare these climate indices with maize yields produced in Veracruz, Mexico, under rainfed conditions. The methodology calculated and analyzed the sector-specific climate indices (Rx5day, PRCPTOT, SPI6, R20mm, TXx, TNn, TXgt50p, and TXge35) in 18 observation sites using Climpact. Climate indices were calculated over the spring-summer agricultural cycle and correlated with rainfed maize yields. Results show increasing trends for Rx5day, TXx, TXgt50p, and TXge35 indices in 65%, 56%, 89%, and 67% of the analyzed sites, respectively, whereas decreasing trends in PRCPTOT and R20mm indices were detected in 59% and 47% of the sites. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) between climate indices and maize yield were found in eight municipalities, of which 62% were positive. In conclusion, extreme temperature and precipitation local events are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, and depending on the site’s local climate, these might positively or negatively impact maize yields.

Observed Global Changes in Sector‐Relevant Climate Extremes Indices—An Extension to HadEX3

“…Multiple indices can also be assessed together (Villa‐Falfán et al., 2023) or combined using multiple linear regression models (McGree et al., 2020) to understand the drivers on crop yields, especially in locations where the daily temperature and precipitation data are not freely available for this kind of analysis but this space‐filling representation is.…”

Evaluation of Changes in Temperature Extremes in Vamsadhara River Basin, Odisha, India

“…A substantial decline in mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and wet days (rainfall ≥ 1 mm; 7%-14%) over Indo Gangetic Plains under RCP8.5 scenario is suggested under RegCM4 projections. Several other studies in India and other countries are conducted on extreme indices to find out the occurrence and frequency of extreme events [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. The purpose of this study was to analyze the ETCCDI recommended extreme temperature indices and to assess the trends of indices".…”